Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Enterprise Partners vs Kairos
40th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 55.6% (10 of 18 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 33.7%–75.4%. Vintage-weighted base rate 41.9%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 53rd percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+13.7 pp
55.6% on 18 deals vs 41.9%
Vs median VC book
+8.6 pp
58.8% on 17 deals vs 50.2%
Vs top-quartile VC
-5.7 pp
58.8% on 17 deals vs 64.5%
Vs Y Combinator
-9.9 pp
61.5% on 13 deals vs 71.5%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 17 of 18 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
17
Mean model percentile
66
Flagged deals
33/3 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 16.7% (3 of 18). 95% Wilson interval 5.8%–39.2%.
Vs exit base rate
+1.1 pp
16.7% on 18 deals vs 15.6%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
18 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Complete Genomicscompletegenomics.com | 2006 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| VMIX Mediavmix.com | 2006 | Yes | 98 | Yes |
| Breach Securitybreach.com | 2006 | Yes | 98 | Yes |
| Kalon Semiconductor | 2006 | No | 97 | — |
| SKY MobileMediaskymobilemedia.com | 2006 | No | 93 | — |
| Hammerhead Systemsstephenlaughlin.posterous.com | 2004 | Yes | 91 | — |
| 3Leaf3leafsystems.com | 2005 | Yes | 88 | — |
| Pivotal Systemspivotalsys.com | 2006 | No | 86 | — |
| Nexx Systemsnexxsystems.com | 2004 | Yes | 83 | — |
| NP Photonicsnpphotonics.com | 2005 | Yes | 80 | — |
| Interactive Fitnessifholdings.com | 2007 | Yes | 47 | — |
| Quorum Systemsquorumsystems.com | 2005 | Yes | 46 | — |
| XIFINxifin.com | 2006 | No | 45 | — |
| TradeBeamtradebeam.com | 2003 | No | 33 | — |
| Celladoncelladon.net | 2005 | Yes | 24 | — |
| IdenTrustidentrust.com | 2005 | No | 12 | — |
| ReliOnrelion-inc.com | 2004 | No | 3 | — |
| Novera Optics | 2001 | No | — | — |