Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Enterprise Ventures vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 18.2% (2 of 11 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 5.1%–47.7%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.9%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 11.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-26.7 pp
18.2% on 11 deals vs 44.9%
Vs median VC book
-37.3 pp
18.2% on 11 deals vs 55.5%
Vs top-quartile VC
-51.6 pp
18.2% on 11 deals vs 69.7%
Vs Y Combinator
-51.1 pp
18.2% on 11 deals vs 69.3%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
11
Mean model percentile
41
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 0.0% (0 of 8). 95% Wilson interval 0.0%–32.4%.
Vs exit base rate
-13.3 pp
0.0% on 8 deals vs 13.3%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
11 labeled follow-on deals, 8 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wadaro Limitedwadaro.com | 2007 | No | 76 | — |
| Biofortunabiofortuna.com | 2010 | Yes | 68 | — |
| Honeycomb Security Solutionshoneycombsolutions.co.uk | 2007 | No | 47 | — |
| Altacoraltacoreyeproducts.co.uk | 2011 | No | 47 | — |
| eoSemieosemi.co.uk | 2009 | Yes | 45 | — |
| Caspian Learningcaspianlearning.co.uk | 2005 | No | 37 | — |
| Coveluscovelus.com | 2005 | No | 34 | — |
| Peckforton Pharmaceuticalspeckforton.com | 2012 | No | 32 | — |
| Yuuguuyuuguu.com | 2006 | No | 23 | — |
| ensembliensembli.com | 2009 | No | 21 | — |
| Powelectricspowelectrics.co.uk | 2012 | No | 18 | — |
| Knight Warnerknightwarneronline.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Woodall Nicholson Groupwoodall-nicholson.co.uk | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| AppLearnapplearn.tv | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Telepathtelepath.uk.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Jobs The Wordjobstheword.co.uk | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| ChargePoint Technologythechargepoint.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Starfish 360starfish360.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Fourteen IPfourteenip.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |