Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Entrepreneurs Fund vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 60.0% (6 of 10 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 31.3%–83.2%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.2%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 10.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+15.8 pp
60.0% on 10 deals vs 44.2%
Vs median VC book
+5.4 pp
60.0% on 10 deals vs 54.6%
Vs top-quartile VC
-9.9 pp
60.0% on 10 deals vs 69.9%
Vs Y Combinator
-12.0 pp
55.6% on 9 deals vs 67.6%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
10
Mean model percentile
64
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 12.5% (1 of 8). 95% Wilson interval 2.2%–47.1%.
Vs exit base rate
+0.8 pp
12.5% on 8 deals vs 11.7%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
10 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xerosxeroscleaning.com | 2010 | Yes | 89 | — |
| InboundWriterinboundwriter.com | 2012 | No | 84 | — |
| General Fusiongeneralfusion.com | 2009 | Yes | 80 | — |
| Prosonixprosonix.co.uk | 2011 | Yes | 78 | — |
| Exosectexosect.com | 2008 | Yes | 77 | — |
| iPolicy Networksipolicynet.com | 2005 | Yes | 68 | — |
| Mbloxmblox.com | 2004 | Yes | 63 | — |
| NovaShuntnovashunt.ch | 2011 | No | 51 | — |
| VAIREX internationalvairex.com | 2008 | No | 34 | — |
| Evolvaevolva.com | 2009 | No | 16 | — |