Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
EPIC Ventures vs Kairos
29th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 52.4% (11 of 21 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 32.4%–71.7%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.8%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 42nd percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+7.6 pp
52.4% on 21 deals vs 44.8%
Vs median VC book
-4.0 pp
52.4% on 21 deals vs 56.4%
Vs top-quartile VC
-18.2 pp
52.4% on 21 deals vs 70.6%
Vs Y Combinator
-20.4 pp
50.0% on 20 deals vs 70.4%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
21
Mean model percentile
63
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 5.9% (1 of 17). 95% Wilson interval 1.0%–27.0%.
Vs exit base rate
-7.2 pp
5.9% on 17 deals vs 13.1%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
21 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HyTrusthytrust.com | 2009 | Yes | 99 | — |
| Mozymozy.com | 2005 | No | 96 | — |
| LignUplignup.com | 2005 | Yes | 94 | — |
| Signalsignal.co | 2010 | Yes | 94 | — |
| Exagen Diagnosticsavisetest.com | 2004 | Yes | 93 | — |
| Bungee Labsbungeelabs.com | 2005 | Yes | 91 | — |
| Zettaset, Inc.zettaset.com | 2011 | Yes | 88 | — |
| Curate.mecurate.me | 2011 | No | 81 | — |
| Mokimoki.com | 2013 | Yes | 77 | — |
| Lumidigmlumidigm.com | 2005 | No | 76 | — |
| Scientific Mediascientific-media.com | 2010 | No | 62 | — |
| TriCiphertricipher.com | 2005 | Yes | 56 | — |
| Alliance Health Networksalliancehealthnetworks.com | 2009 | Yes | 55 | — |
| Cogitocogitoinc.com | 2005 | No | 51 | — |
| CopperKey | 2006 | No | 40 | — |
| Aspen Avionicsaspenavionics.com | 2012 | Yes | 39 | — |
| SparkWordssparkwords.com | 2008 | No | 39 | — |
| Q Holdingsqthera.com | 2008 | No | 35 | — |
| EverSpin Technologieseverspin.com | 2008 | No | 26 | — |
| Adaptive Computingadaptivecomputing.com | 2010 | Yes | 19 | — |
| Consolidated Energyconenersys.com | 2008 | No | 17 | — |