Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Espírito Santo Ventures vs Kairos
15th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 40.0% (6 of 15 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 19.8%–64.3%. Vintage-weighted base rate 45.3%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 23rd percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-5.3 pp
40.0% on 15 deals vs 45.3%
Vs median VC book
-16.2 pp
40.0% on 15 deals vs 56.2%
Vs top-quartile VC
-32.3 pp
40.0% on 15 deals vs 72.3%
Vs Y Combinator
-26.2 pp
40.0% on 15 deals vs 66.2%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
15
Mean model percentile
46
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 10.0% (1 of 10). 95% Wilson interval 1.8%–40.4%.
Vs exit base rate
-2.4 pp
10.0% on 10 deals vs 12.4%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
15 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ultracellultracell-llc.com | 2009 | No | 85 | — |
| SafetyPaysafetypay.com | 2008 | Yes | 83 | — |
| Feedzaifeedzai.com | 2011 | Yes | 78 | — |
| Muzzleymuzzley.com | 2012 | Yes | 76 | — |
| Ubiquity Global Servicesubiquitygs.com | 2012 | Yes | 65 | — |
| Advanced Cyclone Systemsacsystems.pt | 2009 | No | 57 | — |
| Codacycodacy.com | 2013 | Yes | 54 | — |
| YDreams - Informáticaydreams.com | 2006 | No | 38 | — |
| AiCurisaicuris.com | 2010 | No | 36 | — |
| Aquaspyaquaspy.com | 2007 | Yes | 35 | — |
| Multiwave Photonicsmultiwavephotonics.com | 2008 | No | 29 | — |
| Magpowermagpower.pt | 2011 | No | 15 | — |
| Oceanlinxoceanlinx.com | 2008 | No | 13 | — |
| Currentjoincurrent.io | 2011 | No | 13 | — |
| Coreworkscoreworks.pt | 2006 | No | 11 | — |