Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Essex Woodlands Health Ventures vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 53.8% (7 of 13 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 29.1%–76.8%. Vintage-weighted base rate 41.1%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 13.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+12.7 pp
53.8% on 13 deals vs 41.1%
Vs median VC book
+1.8 pp
53.8% on 13 deals vs 52.1%
Vs top-quartile VC
-13.6 pp
53.8% on 13 deals vs 67.5%
Vs Y Combinator
-8.3 pp
54.5% on 11 deals vs 62.9%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
13
Mean model percentile
45
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 16.7% (2 of 12). 95% Wilson interval 4.7%–44.8%.
Vs exit base rate
+3.3 pp
16.7% on 12 deals vs 13.4%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
13 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oraya Therapeuticsorayainc.com | 2007 | Yes | 93 | — |
| TearSciencetearscience.com | 2010 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Xanodynexanodyne.com | 2004 | No | 82 | — |
| Light Sciences Oncologylsoncology.com | 2005 | Yes | 65 | — |
| Endologixendologix.com | 2010 | No | 54 | — |
| Symphogensymphogen.com | 2004 | Yes | 46 | — |
| StrataGent Life Sciences | 2007 | No | 39 | — |
| Revance Therapeuticsrevance.com | 2007 | Yes | 36 | — |
| Nellixnellix.com | 2008 | No | 24 | — |
| Corium Internationalcoriumgroup.com | 2007 | No | 18 | — |
| ikaSystemsikasystems.com | 2010 | Yes | 17 | — |
| Chroma Therapeuticschromatherapeutics.com | 2006 | No | 16 | — |
| Ception Therapeuticsceptiontx.com | 2007 | Yes | 11 | — |