Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
European Founders Fund vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 55.6% (5 of 9 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 26.7%–81.1%. Vintage-weighted base rate 41.0%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 9.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+14.5 pp
55.6% on 9 deals vs 41.0%
Vs median VC book
+4.5 pp
55.6% on 9 deals vs 51.0%
Vs top-quartile VC
-11.8 pp
55.6% on 9 deals vs 67.3%
Vs Y Combinator
+2.0 pp
55.6% on 9 deals vs 53.6%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
9
Mean model percentile
64
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 0.0% (0 of 9). 95% Wilson interval 0.0%–29.9%.
Vs exit base rate
-12.0 pp
0.0% on 9 deals vs 12.0%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
9 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AdRocketadrocket.com | 2009 | No | 94 | — |
| Reputation.comreputation.com | 2008 | Yes | 92 | — |
| Borroborro.com | 2008 | Yes | 90 | — |
| AdScaleadscale.de | 2008 | Yes | 87 | — |
| Frazrfrazr.com | 2007 | No | 66 | — |
| Nasza-klasa.plnk.pl | 2007 | Yes | 62 | — |
| iovationiovation.com | 2008 | Yes | 40 | — |
| Deutsche Startupsdeutsche-startups.de | 2007 | No | 29 | — |
| kontoblickkontoblick.de | 2008 | No | 17 | — |