Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Evergreen Venture Partners vs Kairos
48th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 57.7% (15 of 26 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 38.9%–74.5%. Vintage-weighted base rate 43.1%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 54th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+14.6 pp
57.7% on 26 deals vs 43.1%
Vs median VC book
+7.3 pp
60.0% on 25 deals vs 52.7%
Vs top-quartile VC
-7.9 pp
60.0% on 25 deals vs 67.9%
Vs Y Combinator
-4.8 pp
60.0% on 25 deals vs 64.8%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 25 of 26 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
25
Mean model percentile
58
Flagged deals
21/2 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 15.4% (4 of 26). 95% Wilson interval 6.1%–33.5%.
Vs exit base rate
+1.5 pp
15.4% on 26 deals vs 13.9%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
26 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siklusiklu.com | 2008 | No | 100 | Yes |
| Pentalum Technologiespentalum.com | 2010 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| Pythagoras Solarpythagoras-solar.com | 2008 | No | 91 | — |
| Taboolataboola.com | 2007 | Yes | 88 | — |
| Inneractiveinner-active.com | 2010 | Yes | 80 | — |
| ActiViewsactiviews.com | 2007 | Yes | 80 | — |
| Liboxlibox.com | 2008 | Yes | 80 | — |
| Varonis Systemsvaronis.com | 2006 | Yes | 78 | — |
| Amimonamimon.com | 2005 | Yes | 76 | — |
| ZikBit | 2008 | No | 74 | — |
| PeerApppeerapp.com | 2005 | Yes | 71 | — |
| Aniboomaniboom.com | 2007 | Yes | 68 | — |
| Eglue Business Technologieseglue.com | 2006 | Yes | 63 | — |
| Pontispontis.com | 2007 | Yes | 60 | — |
| Nepheranephera.com | 2010 | No | 50 | — |
| KnockaTVknockatv.com | 2007 | Yes | 48 | — |
| Fusion Dynamic | 2006 | No | 47 | — |
| Olistaolista.com | 2006 | Yes | 41 | — |
| Press-sensepress-sense.com | 2005 | Yes | 29 | — |
| Niti Surgical Solutionsnitisurgical.com | 2009 | No | 29 | — |
| TransPharma Medicaltranspharma-medical.com | 2006 | No | 24 | — |
| Ethos Networksethos-networks.com | 2006 | No | 21 | — |
| Siverge Networkssiverge.com | 2006 | No | 20 | — |
| Crescendo Networkscrescendonetworks.com | 2006 | Yes | 12 | — |
| Traianatraiana.com | 2005 | No | 8 | — |
| Exanetexanet.com | 2001 | No | — | — |
| Qumra Capitalqumracapital.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |