Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Expansion Capital Partners vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 60.0% (3 of 5 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 23.1%–88.2%. Vintage-weighted base rate 42.5%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 5.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+17.5 pp
60.0% on 5 deals vs 42.5%
Vs median VC book
+8.3 pp
60.0% on 5 deals vs 51.7%
Vs top-quartile VC
-6.7 pp
60.0% on 5 deals vs 66.7%
Vs Y Combinator
-4.4 pp
60.0% on 5 deals vs 64.4%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
5
Mean model percentile
58
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 20.0% (1 of 5). 95% Wilson interval 3.6%–62.4%.
Vs exit base rate
+5.1 pp
20.0% on 5 deals vs 14.9%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
5 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Element Labselementlabs.com | 2007 | Yes | 83 | — |
| World Energy Labsworldenergylabs.com | 2006 | No | 66 | — |
| Agile Systemsagile-systems.com | 2005 | No | 54 | — |
| SensorTransensortran.com | 2006 | Yes | 45 | — |
| CPowercpowered.com | 2007 | Yes | 39 | — |