Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Expansion Venture Capital vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 84.6% (11 of 13 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 57.8%–95.7%. Vintage-weighted base rate 49.3%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 13.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+35.4 pp
84.6% on 13 deals vs 49.3%
Vs median VC book
+19.6 pp
83.3% on 12 deals vs 63.7%
Vs top-quartile VC
+5.3 pp
83.3% on 12 deals vs 78.0%
Vs Y Combinator
+6.0 pp
83.3% on 12 deals vs 77.3%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 12 of 13 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
12
Mean model percentile
68
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Companies
13 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NewHoundnewhound.com | 2012 | Yes | 91 | — |
| Red Tricycleredtri.com | 2012 | Yes | 90 | — |
| CompStakcompstak.com | 2012 | Yes | 90 | — |
| MAZmazdigital.com | 2012 | Yes | 85 | — |
| The RealRealtherealreal.com | 2012 | Yes | 83 | — |
| Chalkablechalkable.com | 2012 | No | 79 | — |
| Fitocracyfitocracy.com | 2011 | Yes | 74 | — |
| eSharesesharesinc.com | 2013 | Yes | 67 | — |
| Maker's Rowmakersrow.com | 2013 | Yes | 54 | — |
| Viridis Learningviridislearning.com | 2013 | Yes | 40 | — |
| Apptopiaapptopia.com | 2011 | Yes | 39 | — |
| TenderTreetendertree.com | 2012 | No | 25 | — |
| Merrimack Pharmaceuticalsmerrimackpharma.com | 2002 | Yes | — | — |