Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Extreme Venture Partners vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 55.6% (5 of 9 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 26.7%–81.1%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.7%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 9.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+10.8 pp
55.6% on 9 deals vs 44.7%
Vs median VC book
-0.4 pp
55.6% on 9 deals vs 56.0%
Vs top-quartile VC
-15.6 pp
55.6% on 9 deals vs 71.2%
Vs Y Combinator
-16.9 pp
55.6% on 9 deals vs 72.5%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
9
Mean model percentile
69
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 80.0% (4 of 5). 95% Wilson interval 37.6%–96.4%.
Vs exit base rate
+68.7 pp
80.0% on 5 deals vs 11.3%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
9 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QUALIA (formerly known as LocalResponse)qualia-media.com | 2008 | Yes | 96 | — |
| BumpTopbumptop.com | 2008 | No | 84 | — |
| Changochango.com | 2010 | Yes | 83 | — |
| Locationarylocationary.com | 2011 | No | 71 | — |
| Granifygranify.com | 2012 | Yes | 69 | — |
| Kontagentkontagent.com | 2010 | Yes | 64 | — |
| Extreme Startupsextremestartups.com | 2012 | Yes | 59 | — |
| Engagio (old)engag.io | 2012 | No | 56 | — |
| SharedBy.cosharedby.co | 2011 | No | 40 | — |