Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Felicis Ventures vs Kairos
94th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 73.8% (48 of 65 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 62.0%–83.0%. Vintage-weighted base rate 45.9%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 79th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+27.9 pp
73.8% on 65 deals vs 45.9%
Vs median VC book
+15.7 pp
73.8% on 65 deals vs 58.2%
Vs top-quartile VC
-0.5 pp
73.8% on 65 deals vs 74.3%
Vs Y Combinator
+2.4 pp
73.8% on 65 deals vs 71.5%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
64
Mean model percentile
82
Flagged deals
32/3 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 51.2% (22 of 43). 95% Wilson interval 36.8%–65.4%.
Vs exit base rate
+38.5 pp
51.2% on 43 deals vs 12.7%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
65 labeled follow-on deals, 2 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foodspottingfoodspotting.com | 2010 | Yes | 100 | Yes |
| Tasty Labstastylabs.com | 2010 | No | 99 | Yes |
| Solve Media (An Adiant Company)solvemedia.com | 2009 | Yes | 99 | — |
| Tellotello.com | 2010 | Yes | 99 | — |
| SoundHound Inc.soundhound.com | 2006 | Yes | 98 | Yes |
| CrowdFlowercrowdflower.com | 2009 | Yes | 98 | — |
| Dropcamdropcam.com | 2009 | Yes | 98 | — |
| ContextLogiccontextlogic.com | 2011 | Yes | 98 | — |
| Wild Needlewildneedle.com | 2010 | No | 97 | — |
| Gydgetgydget.com | 2006 | Yes | 97 | — |
| Practice Fusionpracticefusion.com | 2009 | Yes | 96 | — |
| CivicSolarcivicsolar.com | 2010 | No | 95 | — |
| Zaarlyzaarly.com | 2011 | Yes | 95 | — |
| RichRelevancerichrelevance.com | 2007 | Yes | 94 | — |
| MindSnacksmindsnacks.com | 2011 | Yes | 93 | — |
| Votizenvotizen.com | 2010 | Yes | 92 | — |
| Attendio | 2007 | No | 92 | — |
| Appurifyappurify.com | 2012 | Yes | 91 | — |
| SGN (Social Gaming Network)sgn.com | 2006 | Yes | 91 | — |
| HireArthireart.com | 2012 | No | 91 | — |
| Any.DOany.do | 2011 | Yes | 91 | — |
| Wheelzwheelz.com | 2011 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Room 77room77.com | 2010 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Flooredfloored.com | 2012 | Yes | 90 | — |
| BrightRollbrightroll.com | 2006 | Yes | 89 | — |
| MyLikesmylikes.com | 2010 | Yes | 89 | — |
| Baby.com.brbaby.com.br | 2011 | Yes | 88 | — |
| Alt12 Appsalt12.com | 2012 | No | 88 | — |
| Rapleafrapleaf.com | 2006 | Yes | 87 | — |
| Dollar Shave Clubdollarshaveclub.com | 2012 | Yes | 87 | — |
| Matterportmatterport.com | 2012 | Yes | 87 | — |
| Chloe + Isabelchloeandisabel.com | 2011 | Yes | 86 | — |
| Azumioazumio.com | 2011 | No | 85 | — |
| Producteevproducteev.com | 2008 | Yes | 85 | — |
| Waviiwavii.com | 2010 | No | 85 | — |
| Vicariousvicarious.com | 2012 | Yes | 84 | — |
| Pipewisepipewise.com | 2011 | No | 83 | — |
| Merakimeraki.com | 2006 | Yes | 83 | — |
| Pronounpronoun.com | 2010 | Yes | 83 | — |
| Revel Touchreveltouch.com | 2011 | Yes | 83 | — |
| Hearsay Socialhearsaysocial.com | 2011 | Yes | 83 | — |
| Kiwi Cratekiwicrate.com | 2011 | Yes | 82 | — |
| ShopItToMeshopittome.com | 2007 | No | 82 | — |
| ClearSlideclearslide.com | 2010 | Yes | 81 | — |
| Iddictioniddiction.com | 2011 | No | 81 | — |
| YuMeyume.com | 2006 | Yes | 81 | — |
| Massive Healthmassivehealth.com | 2011 | No | 81 | — |
| Gobblegobble.com | 2011 | Yes | 79 | — |
| Breezybreezy.com | 2011 | Yes | 78 | — |
| Piazzapiazza.com | 2011 | Yes | 75 | — |
| ImageShackimageshack.com | 2007 | No | 74 | — |
| Smartlingsmartling.com | 2010 | Yes | 73 | — |
| Weddington Wayweddingtonway.com | 2011 | Yes | 68 | — |
| ThirdLovethirdlove.com | 2013 | Yes | 67 | — |
| Karmagetkarma.com | 2011 | Yes | 67 | — |
| Matchboxmatchbox.net | 2011 | Yes | 67 | — |
| Mesmo.tvmesmo.tv | 2007 | No | 64 | — |
| Plaidplaid.com | 2013 | Yes | 61 | — |
| Spoolgetspool.com | 2012 | No | 59 | — |
| Tynkertynker.com | 2013 | No | 55 | — |
| Shopifyshopify.com | 2010 | Yes | 38 | — |
| Philophilo.com | 2013 | Yes | 36 | — |
| CardSpringcardspring.com | 2011 | Yes | 36 | — |
| Rovio Entertainmentrovio.com | 2011 | No | 17 | — |
| Koalitykoalitycode.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Wedding Partyweddingpartyapp.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Distilldistill.cc | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |