Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
ff Venture Capital vs Kairos
85th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 80.0% (20 of 25 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 60.9%–91.1%. Vintage-weighted base rate 46.3%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 87th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+33.7 pp
80.0% on 25 deals vs 46.3%
Vs median VC book
+24.3 pp
83.3% on 24 deals vs 59.0%
Vs top-quartile VC
+8.8 pp
83.3% on 24 deals vs 74.6%
Vs Y Combinator
+11.8 pp
83.3% on 24 deals vs 71.6%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 24 of 25 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
23
Mean model percentile
78
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 30.8% (4 of 13). 95% Wilson interval 12.7%–57.6%.
Vs exit base rate
+19.6 pp
30.8% on 13 deals vs 11.2%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
25 labeled follow-on deals, 2 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Addeparaddepar.com | 2011 | Yes | 96 | — |
| Identifiedidentified.com | 2010 | Yes | 95 | — |
| HowAboutWehowaboutwe.com | 2010 | Yes | 93 | — |
| Adcadeadcade.com | 2012 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Ionic Securityionicsecurity.com | 2012 | Yes | 87 | — |
| elicitelicitsearch.com | 2011 | Yes | 87 | — |
| Kohortkohort.com | 2011 | No | 86 | — |
| Movable Inkmovableink.com | 2011 | Yes | 85 | — |
| Clearpath Immigrationclearpathimmigration.com | 2010 | Yes | 82 | — |
| GameSaladgamesalad.com | 2010 | Yes | 81 | — |
| Livefyrelivefyre.com | 2010 | Yes | 80 | — |
| 500px500px.com | 2011 | Yes | 79 | — |
| VolunteerSpotvolunteerspot.com | 2012 | Yes | 78 | — |
| ShareSquaregetsharesquare.com | 2010 | Yes | 75 | — |
| Phone.comphone.com | 2008 | Yes | 75 | — |
| MogoTixmogotix.com | 2010 | No | 74 | — |
| Tracktrackhs.com | 2009 | No | 74 | — |
| UniKey Technologiesunikey.com | 2012 | Yes | 73 | — |
| Payz, Inc.payz.com | 2009 | No | 71 | — |
| Omek Interactiveomekinteractive.com | 2008 | Yes | 68 | — |
| InteraXoninteraxon.ca | 2012 | Yes | 67 | — |
| GlucoVistaglucovista.com | 2008 | Yes | 56 | — |
| Platedplated.com | 2013 | Yes | 52 | — |
| Whisk (formerly Zypsee)whisk.me | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| The .tv Corporationtv | 2000 | No | — | — |
| Ionic Security, Inc.socialfortress.com | 2012 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Gigitgigit.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |