Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Fidelity Ventures vs Kairos
41st percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 55.0% (11 of 20 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 34.2%–74.2%. Vintage-weighted base rate 41.4%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 53rd percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+13.6 pp
55.0% on 20 deals vs 41.4%
Vs median VC book
+3.8 pp
55.0% on 20 deals vs 51.2%
Vs top-quartile VC
-10.9 pp
55.0% on 20 deals vs 65.9%
Vs Y Combinator
-14.7 pp
50.0% on 18 deals vs 64.7%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
20
Mean model percentile
54
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 21.1% (4 of 19). 95% Wilson interval 8.5%–43.3%.
Vs exit base rate
+7.1 pp
21.1% on 19 deals vs 13.9%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
20 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receivables Exchangerecx.com | 2007 | Yes | 93 | — |
| BlueNote Networks | 2005 | Yes | 90 | — |
| SpikeSourcespikesource.com | 2005 | Yes | 86 | — |
| RedBrick Healthredbrickhealth.com | 2007 | Yes | 77 | — |
| Intellon Corporationintellon.com | 2004 | Yes | 76 | — |
| Qumasqumas.com | 2005 | No | 74 | — |
| iPipelineipipeline.com | 2008 | Yes | 70 | — |
| mindSHIFT Technologiesmindshift.com | 2003 | Yes | 63 | — |
| Teliristeliris.com | 2007 | Yes | 60 | — |
| Xoom Corporationxoom.com | 2006 | Yes | 55 | — |
| Vibesvibes.com | 2008 | No | 53 | — |
| Verid | 2005 | No | 49 | — |
| Stylesightstylesight.com | 2008 | Yes | 48 | — |
| Primatechprimatech.com | 2008 | No | 47 | — |
| EXFOexfo.com | 2005 | No | 43 | — |
| kajeetkajeet.com | 2007 | Yes | 31 | — |
| GeoLearninggeolearning.com | 2008 | No | 24 | — |
| Classteacher Learning Systemsclassteacher.com | 2011 | No | 19 | — |
| Neverfailneverfailgroup.com | 2006 | No | 16 | — |
| EnvironmentIQ | 2006 | No | 14 | — |