Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Firelake Capital Management vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 62.5% (5 of 8 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 30.6%–86.3%. Vintage-weighted base rate 41.7%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 8.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+20.8 pp
62.5% on 8 deals vs 41.7%
Vs median VC book
+11.1 pp
62.5% on 8 deals vs 51.4%
Vs top-quartile VC
-2.8 pp
62.5% on 8 deals vs 65.3%
Vs Y Combinator
-3.1 pp
66.7% on 6 deals vs 69.7%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
8
Mean model percentile
64
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 14.3% (1 of 7). 95% Wilson interval 2.6%–51.3%.
Vs exit base rate
-0.1 pp
14.3% on 7 deals vs 14.4%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
8 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siva Powersivapower.com | 2007 | Yes | 94 | — |
| HydroPoint Data Systemshydropoint.com | 2004 | Yes | 93 | — |
| QBotixqbotix.com | 2012 | Yes | 88 | — |
| Liquidia Technologiesliquidia.com | 2006 | Yes | 87 | — |
| EnerG2energ2.com | 2008 | Yes | 56 | — |
| Pioneticslinxwater.com | 2005 | No | 43 | — |
| Nanostellarnanostellar.com | 2004 | No | 28 | — |
| Sensicoresensicore.com | 2005 | No | 20 | — |