Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
FirstMark Capital vs Kairos
84th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 79.2% (19 of 24 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 59.5%–90.8%. Vintage-weighted base rate 45.5%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 87th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+33.7 pp
79.2% on 24 deals vs 45.5%
Vs median VC book
+22.2 pp
79.2% on 24 deals vs 57.0%
Vs top-quartile VC
+6.2 pp
79.2% on 24 deals vs 73.0%
Vs Y Combinator
+8.8 pp
79.2% on 24 deals vs 70.3%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
24
Mean model percentile
78
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 28.6% (4 of 14). 95% Wilson interval 11.7%–54.6%.
Vs exit base rate
+16.1 pp
28.6% on 14 deals vs 12.4%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
24 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dashlanedashlane.com | 2011 | Yes | 99 | — |
| 2010 | Yes | 98 | — | |
| Conductorconductor.build | 2006 | Yes | 95 | — |
| MyCityWaymycityway.com | 2010 | Yes | 95 | — |
| Payoffpayoff.com | 2010 | Yes | 94 | — |
| Jirafejirafe.com | 2010 | Yes | 92 | — |
| PackLate.compacklate.com | 2010 | No | 88 | — |
| Artisan Mobileuseartisan.com | 2012 | Yes | 88 | — |
| YouAre.TVyouaretv.com | 2009 | Yes | 87 | — |
| AHAlife.comahalife.com | 2011 | Yes | 85 | — |
| StraighterLinestraighterline.com | 2012 | No | 83 | — |
| Tapadtapad.com | 2011 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Meteor Entertainmentmeteor-ent.com | 2012 | Yes | 78 | — |
| Health Plan Onehealthplanone.com | 2008 | No | 75 | — |
| Knozenknozen.com | 2013 | No | 74 | — |
| Lolly Wolly Doodlelollywollydoodle.com | 2011 | Yes | 74 | — |
| Medico.commedico.com | 2011 | No | 73 | — |
| Playnomicsplaynomics.com | 2009 | Yes | 71 | — |
| Aereoaereo.com | 2011 | Yes | 65 | — |
| Aveksaaveksa.com | 2006 | Yes | 64 | — |
| Riot Gamesriotgames.com | 2008 | Yes | 64 | — |
| Live Gamerlivegamer.com | 2007 | Yes | 63 | — |
| SecondMarketsecondmarket.com | 2006 | Yes | 49 | — |
| Shopifyshopify.com | 2010 | Yes | 38 | — |