Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Flagship Ventures vs Kairos
91st percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 73.2% (30 of 41 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 58.1%–84.3%. Vintage-weighted base rate 43.4%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 82nd percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+29.8 pp
73.2% on 41 deals vs 43.4%
Vs median VC book
+19.9 pp
73.7% on 38 deals vs 53.7%
Vs top-quartile VC
+4.9 pp
73.7% on 38 deals vs 68.7%
Vs Y Combinator
+10.9 pp
79.3% on 29 deals vs 68.4%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 38 of 41 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
38
Mean model percentile
69
Flagged deals
22/2 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 25.7% (9 of 35). 95% Wilson interval 14.2%–42.1%.
Vs exit base rate
+12.0 pp
25.7% on 35 deals vs 13.7%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
41 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TARIS Biomedicaltarisbiomedical.com | 2009 | Yes | 100 | Yes |
| Joule Unlimitedjouleunlimited.com | 2010 | Yes | 99 | — |
| Parasol Therapeutics | 2009 | Yes | 99 | — |
| Selecta Biosciencesselectabio.com | 2009 | Yes | 98 | — |
| Codon Devices | 2005 | Yes | 98 | Yes |
| Blend Therapeuticsblendtx.com | 2012 | Yes | 94 | — |
| Moderna Therapeuticsmodernatx.com | 2012 | Yes | 93 | — |
| Ensemble Discoveryensemblediscovery.com | 2004 | No | 92 | — |
| Adnexusadnexustx.com | 2003 | No | 91 | — |
| BIND Therapeutics, Inc.bindtherapeutics.com | 2010 | Yes | 90 | — |
| LS9ls9.com | 2007 | Yes | 90 | — |
| T2 Biosystemst2biosystems.com | 2006 | Yes | 88 | — |
| Quanterixquanterix.com | 2008 | Yes | 87 | — |
| Seres Healthsereshealth.com | 2012 | Yes | 87 | — |
| Black Duck Softwareblackducksoftware.com | 2004 | Yes | 84 | — |
| Pronutria Biosciences, Inc.pronutriabio.com | 2013 | Yes | 84 | — |
| Acceleron Pharmaacceleronpharma.com | 2006 | Yes | 83 | — |
| Tetraphase Pharmaceuticalstphase.com | 2006 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Zingkuzingku.com | 2006 | No | 82 | — |
| Agios Pharmaceuticalsagiospharmaceuticals.com | 2008 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Interactive Supercomputinginteractivsupercomputing.com | 2006 | Yes | 79 | — |
| Netuitivenetuitive.com | 2005 | Yes | 76 | — |
| Syros Pharmaceuticalssyros.com | 2013 | Yes | 71 | — |
| Novomernovomer.com | 2007 | Yes | 68 | — |
| Affinnovaaffinnova.com | 2003 | Yes | 59 | — |
| Mascomamascoma.com | 2006 | Yes | 56 | — |
| WikiCell Designswikipearl.com | 2012 | No | 55 | — |
| Seahorse Bioscienceseahorsebio.com | 2009 | Yes | 53 | — |
| Calpurnia Corporation | 2006 | No | 46 | — |
| Pervasis Therapeuticspervasistx.com | 2004 | Yes | 42 | — |
| SiCortexsicortex.com | 2004 | Yes | 42 | — |
| ZoomInfozoominfo.com | 2004 | No | 40 | — |
| Editas Medicineeditasmedicine.com | 2013 | Yes | 33 | — |
| Carbon Design Systemscarbondesignsystems.com | 2004 | Yes | 29 | — |
| Revivio | 2005 | No | 27 | — |
| Everyday Solutionseverydaywireless.com | 2010 | No | 25 | — |
| TransMedicstransmedics.com | 2004 | No | 21 | — |
| Extrapriseextraprise.com | 2005 | No | 7 | — |
| Integrated Development Enterprise | 2002 | Yes | — | — |
| Tira Wirelesstirawireless.com | 2002 | Yes | — | — |
| TripAdvisortripadvisor.com | 2000 | No | — | — |