Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Flybridge Capital Partners vs Kairos
74th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 67.6% (23 of 34 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 50.8%–80.9%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.8%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 70th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+22.8 pp
67.6% on 34 deals vs 44.8%
Vs median VC book
+11.8 pp
67.6% on 34 deals vs 55.8%
Vs top-quartile VC
-3.4 pp
67.6% on 34 deals vs 71.0%
Vs Y Combinator
+0.3 pp
67.6% on 34 deals vs 67.3%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
34
Mean model percentile
75
Flagged deals
22/2 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 41.7% (10 of 24). 95% Wilson interval 24.5%–61.2%.
Vs exit base rate
+28.6 pp
41.7% on 24 deals vs 13.1%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
34 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TARIS Biomedicaltarisbiomedical.com | 2009 | Yes | 100 | Yes |
| SimpleTuitionsimpletuition.com | 2006 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| Sand 9sand9.com | 2008 | Yes | 98 | — |
| SavingStarsavingstar.com | 2010 | Yes | 97 | — |
| DataXudataxu.com | 2009 | Yes | 97 | — |
| Transperatranspera.com | 2007 | Yes | 96 | — |
| Gobygoby.com | 2010 | No | 93 | — |
| Blackwaveblackwave.tv | 2006 | Yes | 92 | — |
| Tracelyticstracelytics.com | 2011 | Yes | 92 | — |
| Virtual Computervirtualcomputer.com | 2007 | Yes | 91 | — |
| Mobivoxmobivox.com | 2007 | No | 90 | — |
| GamerDNAgamerdna.com | 2007 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Stormpathstormpath.com | 2012 | Yes | 89 | — |
| T2 Biosystemst2biosystems.com | 2006 | Yes | 88 | — |
| tracxtracx.com | 2012 | Yes | 87 | — |
| Springleaf Therapeuticsspringleaftx.com | 2009 | Yes | 87 | — |
| Entra Pharmaceuticalsentrapharma.com | 2008 | No | 83 | — |
| BitSight Technologiesbitsighttech.com | 2011 | Yes | 77 | — |
| ZestFinancezestfinance.com | 2011 | Yes | 75 | — |
| Zing Systemszing.net | 2006 | No | 75 | — |
| Open Englishopenenglish.com | 2010 | Yes | 71 | — |
| BlueTarp Financialbluetarp.com | 2007 | No | 70 | — |
| Lighter Livinglighterliving.com | 2009 | No | 65 | — |
| Cartera Commercecartera.com | 2005 | Yes | 59 | — |
| mValentmvalent.com | 2005 | No | 59 | — |
| ZestCashzestcash.com | 2011 | Yes | 56 | — |
| Smooth-Stonesmooth-stone.com | 2010 | Yes | 54 | — |
| Ready Financial Groupreadydebit.com | 2009 | No | 52 | — |
| Pitzipitzi.com.br | 2012 | Yes | 49 | — |
| Convoke Systemsconvokesystems.com | 2010 | No | 46 | — |
| ClickSquaredclicksquared.com | 2007 | Yes | 43 | — |
| PanGo Networkspangonetworks.com | 2005 | No | 42 | — |
| MadeiraMadeiramadeiramadeira.com.br | 2012 | Yes | 40 | — |
| Carnivalcarnivalmobile.com | 2013 | No | 34 | — |