Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Focus Ventures vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 42.9% (3 of 7 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 15.8%–75.0%. Vintage-weighted base rate 43.4%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 7.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-0.6 pp
42.9% on 7 deals vs 43.4%
Vs median VC book
-2.5 pp
50.0% on 6 deals vs 52.5%
Vs top-quartile VC
-17.1 pp
50.0% on 6 deals vs 67.1%
Vs Y Combinator
-17.2 pp
50.0% on 6 deals vs 67.2%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 6 of 7 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
6
Mean model percentile
46
Flagged deals
11/1 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 16.7% (1 of 6). 95% Wilson interval 3.0%–56.4%.
Vs exit base rate
+2.2 pp
16.7% on 6 deals vs 14.5%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
7 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cyancyaninc.com | 2006 | Yes | 98 | Yes |
| MarkMonitormarkmonitor.com | 2006 | No | 67 | — |
| Picarropicarro.com | 2012 | No | 42 | — |
| Centrality Communications | 2005 | No | 30 | — |
| Crossbeam Systemscrossbeamsystems.com | 2007 | Yes | 27 | — |
| PCH Internationalpchintl.com | 2008 | Yes | 12 | — |
| Sequence Designsequencedesign.com | 2002 | No | — | — |