Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Forerunner Ventures vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 81.8% (9 of 11 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 52.3%–94.9%. Vintage-weighted base rate 51.2%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 11.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+30.6 pp
81.8% on 11 deals vs 51.2%
Vs median VC book
+12.6 pp
81.8% on 11 deals vs 69.2%
Vs top-quartile VC
-3.0 pp
81.8% on 11 deals vs 84.8%
Vs Y Combinator
+7.9 pp
81.8% on 11 deals vs 73.9%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
8
Mean model percentile
82
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Companies
11 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wantfulwantful.com | 2012 | No | 94 | — |
| Threadflipthreadflip.com | 2012 | Yes | 85 | — |
| JOORjooraccess.com | 2011 | Yes | 84 | — |
| Kiwi Cratekiwicrate.com | 2011 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Birchboxbirchbox.com | 2010 | Yes | 81 | — |
| Wanelowanelo.com | 2012 | Yes | 81 | — |
| Nominomi.so | 2013 | Yes | 79 | — |
| Into The Glossintothegloss.com | 2013 | No | 69 | — |
| ALOHAaloha.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Darby Smartdarbysmart.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Somadrinksoma.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |