Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Forward Ventures vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 60.0% (6 of 10 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 31.3%–83.2%. Vintage-weighted base rate 42.4%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 10.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+17.6 pp
60.0% on 10 deals vs 42.4%
Vs median VC book
+2.9 pp
55.6% on 9 deals vs 52.6%
Vs top-quartile VC
-11.1 pp
55.6% on 9 deals vs 66.7%
Vs Y Combinator
-10.2 pp
55.6% on 9 deals vs 65.8%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 9 of 10 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
9
Mean model percentile
51
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 20.0% (2 of 10). 95% Wilson interval 5.7%–51.0%.
Vs exit base rate
+5.5 pp
20.0% on 10 deals vs 14.5%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
10 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tioga Pharmaceuticalstiogapharma.com | 2006 | No | 96 | — |
| HemaQuest Pharmaceuticalshemaquest.com | 2007 | Yes | 83 | — |
| Syndax Pharmaceuticalssyndax.com | 2007 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Ambit Biosciencesambitbio.com | 2005 | Yes | 79 | — |
| Concurrent Thinkingconcurrent-thinking.com | 2006 | No | 40 | — |
| Affinium Pharmaceuticalsafnm.com | 2007 | No | 29 | — |
| Adianaadiana.com | 2005 | No | 25 | — |
| LigoCyte Pharmaceuticalsligocyte.com | 2008 | Yes | 22 | — |
| Nereus Pharmaceuticalsnereuspharm.com | 2005 | Yes | 4 | — |
| Sanarus Medicalsanarus.com | 2001 | Yes | — | — |