Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Foundation Capital vs Kairos
55th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 56.0% (42 of 75 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 44.7%–66.7%. Vintage-weighted base rate 43.2%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 51st percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+12.8 pp
56.0% on 75 deals vs 43.2%
Vs median VC book
+2.2 pp
55.7% on 70 deals vs 53.5%
Vs top-quartile VC
-12.6 pp
55.7% on 70 deals vs 68.3%
Vs Y Combinator
-13.4 pp
54.1% on 61 deals vs 67.5%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 70 of 75 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
68
Mean model percentile
64
Flagged deals
32/3 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 35.4% (23 of 65). 95% Wilson interval 24.9%–47.5%.
Vs exit base rate
+22.0 pp
35.4% on 65 deals vs 13.4%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
75 labeled follow-on deals, 2 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luminateluminatemed.com | 2009 | Yes | 100 | Yes |
| AdWhirladwhirl.com | 2009 | No | 99 | Yes |
| Guardian Analyticsguardiananalytics.com | 2006 | Yes | 98 | Yes |
| Convivaconviva.com | 2007 | Yes | 97 | — |
| Powersetpowerset.com | 2006 | Yes | 96 | — |
| Zetta.netzetta.net | 2008 | Yes | 94 | — |
| Azure Powerazurepower.com | 2008 | Yes | 93 | — |
| Mobius Microsystemsmobiusmicro.com | 2006 | Yes | 93 | — |
| Codefast | 2005 | No | 92 | — |
| CalStar Productscalstarproducts.com | 2008 | Yes | 92 | — |
| Pano Logicpanologic.com | 2008 | Yes | 92 | — |
| Appurifyappurify.com | 2012 | Yes | 91 | — |
| Hammerhead Systemsstephenlaughlin.posterous.com | 2004 | Yes | 91 | — |
| CliQr Technologiescliqr.com | 2012 | Yes | 89 | — |
| Xelor Software | 2005 | No | 88 | — |
| Cyphortcyphort.com | 2011 | Yes | 88 | — |
| Moxiegomoxie.com | 2007 | Yes | 88 | — |
| HotLinkhotlink.com | 2011 | No | 87 | — |
| Sunrunsunrun.com | 2008 | Yes | 87 | — |
| Numeratenumerate.com | 2009 | No | 86 | — |
| Autogridauto-grid.com | 2012 | Yes | 85 | — |
| Arroyo Video Solutions | 2004 | Yes | 84 | — |
| GridIron Systemsgridironsystems.com | 2012 | No | 83 | — |
| Motif Investingmotifinvesting.com | 2011 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Quantivoquantivo.com | 2008 | Yes | 82 | — |
| PrivateCoreprivatecore.com | 2012 | No | 81 | — |
| Extreme DAextreme-da.com | 2007 | No | 79 | — |
| Utah Street Labsutahstreetlabs.com | 2012 | No | 79 | — |
| Altor Networksaltornetworks.com | 2008 | Yes | 79 | — |
| Therativetherative.com | 2007 | Yes | 77 | — |
| Venafivenafi.com | 2006 | No | 75 | — |
| Deemdeem.com | 2004 | Yes | 75 | — |
| Serious Energyseriousenergy.com | 2007 | Yes | 72 | — |
| Propellerusepropeller.com | 2013 | No | 71 | — |
| Pocketheypocket.com | 2011 | Yes | 70 | — |
| Traverse Networks | 2005 | No | 69 | — |
| Xoopitxoopit.com | 2006 | Yes | 67 | — |
| MarkMonitormarkmonitor.com | 2006 | No | 67 | — |
| Helpstreamhelpstream.com | 2008 | No | 63 | — |
| Coveritycoverity.com | 2008 | No | 62 | — |
| Cantaloupe Systemscantaloupesys.com | 2010 | No | 61 | — |
| Biz360biz360.com | 2003 | No | 60 | — |
| Rohati Systemsrohati.com | 2007 | Yes | 60 | — |
| National Payment Networknationalpayment.net | 2007 | Yes | 58 | — |
| VaST Systems Technologyvastsystems.com | 2005 | Yes | 56 | — |
| BigDealbigdeal.com | 2009 | No | 54 | — |
| Bella Picturesbellapictures.com | 2009 | No | 50 | — |
| Purfreshpurfresh.com | 2005 | Yes | 49 | — |
| WhereNetwherenet.com | 2005 | No | 49 | — |
| Naverusnaverus.com | 2008 | Yes | 48 | — |
| Aktinoaktino.com | 2005 | No | 47 | — |
| Bureau Of Tradebureauoftrade.com | 2012 | No | 47 | — |
| CiiNOWciinow.com | 2011 | No | 43 | — |
| EnerNOCenernoc.com | 2005 | No | 40 | — |
| RORE MEDIA | 2012 | No | 35 | — |
| Jasper Design Automationjasper-da.com | 2003 | No | 32 | — |
| Virtugo Softwareuxcomm.com | 2006 | Yes | 27 | — |
| Keteraketera.com | 2003 | No | 27 | — |
| Spreetales | 2012 | No | 24 | — |
| Conformia Softwareconformia.com | 2006 | Yes | 24 | — |
| Mendocino Softwaredciginc.com | 2004 | Yes | 23 | — |
| Synforasynfora.com | 2004 | Yes | 21 | — |
| CloudShield Technologiescloudshield.com | 2005 | Yes | 19 | — |
| BoardVantageboardvantage.com | 2004 | Yes | 13 | — |
| Performance Marketing Brands, Inc.performancemarketingbrands.com | 2012 | No | 12 | — |
| Solarflare Communicationssolarflare.com | 2005 | No | 11 | — |
| Yaolan.comyaolan.com | 2008 | No | 10 | — |
| Interact Public Safetyinteract911.com | 2008 | Yes | 0 | — |
| Tealeaftealeaf.com | 2002 | Yes | — | — |
| Fastback Networksfastbacknetworks.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Autonomic Networksautonomic-networks.com | 2001 | Yes | — | — |
| Sentient Energysentient-energy.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Responsysresponsys.com | 2000 | Yes | — | — |
| ONStoronstor.com | 2002 | No | — | — |
| FOB.comfob.com | 2000 | No | — | — |
| Refresh.iorefresh.io | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| TalentBintalentbin.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |