Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Founders Fund vs Kairos
61st percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 62.8% (27 of 43 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 47.9%–75.6%. Vintage-weighted base rate 45.9%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 60th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+16.9 pp
62.8% on 43 deals vs 45.9%
Vs median VC book
+4.2 pp
62.8% on 43 deals vs 58.6%
Vs top-quartile VC
-11.3 pp
62.8% on 43 deals vs 74.0%
Vs Y Combinator
-7.7 pp
62.8% on 43 deals vs 70.5%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
42
Mean model percentile
82
Flagged deals
42/4 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 59.3% (16 of 27). 95% Wilson interval 40.7%–75.5%.
Vs exit base rate
+47.1 pp
59.3% on 27 deals vs 12.1%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
43 labeled follow-on deals, 2 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yammeryammer.com | 2009 | Yes | 100 | Yes |
| CoTweetcotweet.com | 2009 | No | 100 | Yes |
| 140 Proof140proof.com | 2009 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| Topguesttopguest.com | 2010 | No | 99 | Yes |
| Pathpath.me | 2010 | Yes | 98 | — |
| Organizerorganizer.com | 2011 | Yes | 97 | — |
| Wallaby Financialwalla.by | 2012 | No | 94 | — |
| Gowallagowalla.com | 2008 | Yes | 94 | — |
| Portalariumportalarium.com | 2011 | Yes | 92 | — |
| Votizenvotizen.com | 2010 | Yes | 92 | — |
| AppCardappcard.com | 2012 | No | 92 | — |
| Transcriptictranscriptic.com | 2012 | Yes | 91 | — |
| theAudiencetheaudience.com | 2012 | No | 90 | — |
| 100Plus100plus.com | 2011 | No | 89 | — |
| Sparkcentralsparkcentral.com | 2012 | Yes | 89 | — |
| Uversityuversity.com | 2007 | Yes | 89 | — |
| Brit + Cobrit.co | 2012 | Yes | 89 | — |
| fflickfflick.com | 2010 | No | 89 | — |
| Leap Motionleapmotion.com | 2011 | Yes | 89 | — |
| Genigeni.com | 2007 | Yes | 89 | — |
| Quantcastquantcast.com | 2007 | Yes | 87 | — |
| Frogmetricsfrogmetrics.com | 2008 | No | 87 | — |
| Azumioazumio.com | 2011 | No | 85 | — |
| HipChathipchat.com | 2010 | No | 84 | — |
| Hiloshilos.io | 2011 | Yes | 84 | — |
| Vicariousvicarious.com | 2012 | Yes | 84 | — |
| Prior Knowledgepriorknowledge.com | 2012 | No | 82 | — |
| OLXolx.com | 2007 | Yes | 81 | — |
| Causescauses.com | 2007 | Yes | 79 | — |
| Ostrovokostrovok.ru | 2011 | Yes | 79 | — |
| GoodRxgoodrx.com | 2011 | Yes | 76 | — |
| YouNoodleyounoodle.com | 2010 | No | 76 | — |
| Glowglowing.com | 2013 | Yes | 74 | — |
| Trusted Insightthetrustedinsight.com | 2010 | No | 73 | — |
| Declaradeclara.com | 2013 | Yes | 71 | — |
| Betablecorp.betable.com | 2012 | Yes | 68 | — |
| Signature Therapeutics, Inc.signaturerx.com | 2011 | No | 68 | — |
| Lascaux Co.lascaux.us | 2010 | Yes | 60 | — |
| Engageengage.com | 2006 | No | 58 | — |
| Oscarhioscar.com | 2013 | Yes | 51 | — |
| SmartDrive Systemssmartdrive.net | 2007 | Yes | 43 | — |
| MedTech Solutions | 2012 | No | 26 | — |
| PandoDailypando.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Zimridezimride.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Koalitykoalitycode.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |