Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Frazier Healthcare Partners vs Kairos
78th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 72.7% (16 of 22 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 51.8%–86.8%. Vintage-weighted base rate 42.5%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 83rd percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+30.2 pp
72.7% on 22 deals vs 42.5%
Vs median VC book
+27.4 pp
80.0% on 20 deals vs 52.6%
Vs top-quartile VC
+11.7 pp
80.0% on 20 deals vs 68.3%
Vs Y Combinator
+16.8 pp
78.9% on 19 deals vs 62.2%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 20 of 22 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
20
Mean model percentile
64
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 61.1% (11 of 18). 95% Wilson interval 38.6%–79.7%.
Vs exit base rate
+47.9 pp
61.1% on 18 deals vs 13.2%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
22 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stemgentstemgent.com | 2009 | Yes | 91 | — |
| Alcrestaalcresta.com | 2012 | Yes | 89 | — |
| Allena Pharmaceuticalsallenapharma.com | 2011 | Yes | 89 | — |
| Juniper Medical | 2006 | No | 84 | — |
| Primaeva Medicalprimaevamedical.com | 2006 | Yes | 84 | — |
| Zeltiq Aestheticszeltiq.com | 2007 | Yes | 84 | — |
| Stromedixstromedix.com | 2007 | Yes | 81 | — |
| Intradigm Corporationintradigm.com | 2006 | Yes | 81 | — |
| Calistoga Pharmaceuticalscalistogapharma.com | 2007 | Yes | 78 | — |
| PowerVisionpowervisionlens.com | 2007 | Yes | 76 | — |
| Alnara Pharmaceuticalsalnara.com | 2008 | Yes | 74 | — |
| Rempex Pharmaceuticalsrempexpharma.com | 2011 | No | 68 | — |
| FlowCardiaflowcardia.com | 2007 | No | 64 | — |
| BARRX Medicalbarrx.com | 2010 | No | 56 | — |
| Calibra Medical | 2008 | Yes | 54 | — |
| EBR Systemsebrsystemsinc.com | 2005 | Yes | 38 | — |
| Zonare Medical Systemszonare.com | 2004 | Yes | 31 | — |
| Tobira Therapeuticstobiratherapeutics.com | 2007 | Yes | 22 | — |
| Clovis Oncologyclovisoncology.com | 2009 | Yes | 19 | — |
| Calypso Medicalcalypsomedical.com | 2007 | Yes | 12 | — |
| Glaukosglaukos.com | 2002 | No | — | — |
| PatientKeeperpatientkeeper.com | 2000 | No | — | — |