Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Frazier Technology Ventures vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 55.6% (5 of 9 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 26.7%–81.1%. Vintage-weighted base rate 43.7%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 9.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+11.9 pp
55.6% on 9 deals vs 43.7%
Vs median VC book
+1.5 pp
55.6% on 9 deals vs 54.0%
Vs top-quartile VC
-11.1 pp
55.6% on 9 deals vs 66.7%
Vs Y Combinator
-16.6 pp
55.6% on 9 deals vs 72.1%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
9
Mean model percentile
77
Flagged deals
11/1 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 22.2% (2 of 9). 95% Wilson interval 6.3%–54.7%.
Vs exit base rate
+7.3 pp
22.2% on 9 deals vs 14.9%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
9 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wetpaintwetpaint-inc.com | 2005 | Yes | 97 | Yes |
| Smileboxsmilebox.com | 2006 | Yes | 97 | — |
| IceBreakericebreaker.mobi | 2007 | No | 90 | — |
| Socratasocrata.com | 2008 | No | 87 | — |
| SNAPin Softwaresnapin.com | 2005 | Yes | 82 | — |
| OnRequest Imagesonrequestimages.com | 2005 | Yes | 74 | — |
| MOBITRAC | 2005 | No | 65 | — |
| Avesoavesodisplays.com | 2006 | Yes | 58 | — |
| Aprimoaprimo.com | 2005 | No | 45 | — |