Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Freestyle Capital vs Kairos
32nd percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 57.9% (11 of 19 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 36.3%–76.9%. Vintage-weighted base rate 48.6%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 45th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+9.3 pp
57.9% on 19 deals vs 48.6%
Vs median VC book
-5.0 pp
57.9% on 19 deals vs 62.9%
Vs top-quartile VC
-21.1 pp
57.9% on 19 deals vs 79.0%
Vs Y Combinator
-14.1 pp
57.9% on 19 deals vs 72.0%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
18
Mean model percentile
84
Flagged deals
10/1 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 78.6% (11 of 14). 95% Wilson interval 52.4%–92.4%.
Vs exit base rate
+67.8 pp
78.6% on 14 deals vs 10.7%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
19 labeled follow-on deals, 3 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CoTweetcotweet.com | 2009 | No | 100 | Yes |
| CrowdFlowercrowdflower.com | 2009 | Yes | 98 | — |
| Recurlyrecurly.com | 2010 | Yes | 97 | — |
| Typekittypekit.com | 2009 | Yes | 92 | — |
| Piqorapiqora.com | 2012 | Yes | 91 | — |
| ObjectLabsmongolab.com | 2011 | Yes | 91 | — |
| GoInstantgoinstant.com | 2011 | No | 89 | — |
| StyleTrekstyletrek.com | 2010 | No | 87 | — |
| Impermiumimpermium.com | 2011 | Yes | 86 | — |
| Bylinerbyliner.com | 2011 | Yes | 84 | — |
| Yobongoyobongo.com | 2011 | No | 80 | — |
| Joyridegetjoyride.com | 2013 | No | 79 | — |
| Clarityclarity.fm | 2012 | Yes | 79 | — |
| IndexTankindextank.com | 2011 | No | 79 | — |
| Enflickenflick.com | 2011 | No | 78 | — |
| Patreonpatreon.com | 2013 | Yes | 73 | — |
| clypdclypd.com | 2013 | Yes | 71 | — |
| Seesawseesaw.co | 2012 | No | 56 | — |
| Cluster Labscluster.co | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Leoleo.co | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Opsmaticopsmatic.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| AdStageadstage.io | 2013 | Yes | — | — |