Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
FreshTracks Capital vs Kairos
15th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 38.9% (7 of 18 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 20.3%–61.4%. Vintage-weighted base rate 43.7%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 24th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-4.8 pp
38.9% on 18 deals vs 43.7%
Vs median VC book
-12.9 pp
41.2% on 17 deals vs 54.0%
Vs top-quartile VC
-28.0 pp
41.2% on 17 deals vs 69.2%
Vs Y Combinator
-28.1 pp
37.5% on 16 deals vs 65.6%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 17 of 18 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
17
Mean model percentile
42
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 35.7% (5 of 14). 95% Wilson interval 16.3%–61.2%.
Vs exit base rate
+22.1 pp
35.7% on 14 deals vs 13.6%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
18 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mophiemophie.com | 2006 | No | 90 | — |
| Kohortkohort.com | 2011 | No | 86 | — |
| Patient Engagement Systemspatientengagementsystems.com | 2009 | Yes | 75 | — |
| NativeEnergynativeenergy.com | 2007 | No | 64 | — |
| FX Alignedfxaligned.com | 2012 | Yes | 60 | — |
| Applied NanoWorksauterrainc.com | 2006 | Yes | 54 | — |
| GetWellNetwork, Inc.getwellnetwork.com | 2005 | No | 53 | — |
| SolarOne Solutionssolarone.net | 2008 | No | 39 | — |
| ISISisisforwomen.com | 2007 | No | 34 | — |
| Drakerdrakerenergy.com | 2008 | Yes | 32 | — |
| Sequel Industrial Products | 2012 | No | 29 | — |
| NEHPnehp.com | 2007 | No | 28 | — |
| GroupZoomgroupzoom.com | 2013 | Yes | 25 | — |
| Solais Lightingsolaislighting.com | 2009 | Yes | 15 | — |
| Quirkyquirky.com | 2006 | No | 15 | — |
| Vermont Teddy Bearvermontteddybear.com | 2005 | No | 12 | — |
| Medical Metrx Solutionsmedicalmetrix.com | 2003 | Yes | 10 | — |
| EatingWelleatingwell.com | 2002 | No | — | — |