Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Frontier Capital vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 11.1% (1 of 9 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 2.0%–43.5%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.3%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 9.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-33.2 pp
11.1% on 9 deals vs 44.3%
Vs median VC book
-41.4 pp
12.5% on 8 deals vs 53.9%
Vs top-quartile VC
-57.3 pp
12.5% on 8 deals vs 69.8%
Vs Y Combinator
-53.5 pp
12.5% on 8 deals vs 66.0%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 8 of 9 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
8
Mean model percentile
29
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 42.9% (3 of 7). 95% Wilson interval 15.8%–75.0%.
Vs exit base rate
+29.8 pp
42.9% on 7 deals vs 13.1%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
9 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M3 Technology Groupm3tg.com | 2007 | No | 51 | — |
| Perceptisperceptis.com | 2010 | Yes | 35 | — |
| Anodyne Healthanodynehealth.com | 2006 | No | 31 | — |
| Conclusive Analyticsconclusiveanalytics.com | 2006 | No | 29 | — |
| DAXKOdaxko.com | 2008 | No | 25 | — |
| Celergocelergo.com | 2011 | No | 24 | — |
| Lanyon Solutions, Inclanyon.com | 2009 | No | 22 | — |
| TravelRenttravelrent.com | 2012 | No | 15 | — |
| MultiLing Corporationmultiling.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Peak 10peak10.com | 2002 | No | — | — |