Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Fuse Capital vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 22.2% (2 of 9 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 6.3%–54.7%. Vintage-weighted base rate 43.2%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 9.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-21.0 pp
22.2% on 9 deals vs 43.2%
Vs median VC book
-30.2 pp
22.2% on 9 deals vs 52.4%
Vs top-quartile VC
-46.5 pp
22.2% on 9 deals vs 68.7%
Vs Y Combinator
-31.9 pp
22.2% on 9 deals vs 54.1%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
9
Mean model percentile
79
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 33.3% (3 of 9). 95% Wilson interval 12.1%–64.6%.
Vs exit base rate
+22.3 pp
33.3% on 9 deals vs 11.0%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
9 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crowd Fusionceros.com | 2008 | No | 95 | — |
| The Scenethescene.com | 2009 | No | 94 | — |
| 5to15to1.com | 2009 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Sensys Networkssensysnetworks.com | 2008 | No | 89 | — |
| Exalt Communicationsexaltcom.com | 2009 | No | 82 | — |
| Publish2publish2.com | 2008 | No | 82 | — |
| BBEbbe.com | 2008 | No | 66 | — |
| Generategeneratela.com | 2008 | Yes | 58 | — |
| FatTailadserver.fattail.com | 2008 | No | 57 | — |
| Safeguard Scientificssafeguard.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |