Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Gabriel Venture Partners vs Kairos
46th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 60.0% (9 of 15 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 35.7%–80.2%. Vintage-weighted base rate 41.5%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 63rd percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+18.5 pp
60.0% on 15 deals vs 41.5%
Vs median VC book
+5.3 pp
57.1% on 14 deals vs 51.8%
Vs top-quartile VC
-9.5 pp
57.1% on 14 deals vs 66.7%
Vs Y Combinator
-4.2 pp
57.1% on 14 deals vs 61.3%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 14 of 15 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
14
Mean model percentile
64
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 40.0% (6 of 15). 95% Wilson interval 19.8%–64.3%.
Vs exit base rate
+26.1 pp
40.0% on 15 deals vs 13.9%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
15 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cheggchegg.com | 2007 | Yes | 98 | — |
| Connectbeamconnectbeam.com | 2007 | No | 97 | — |
| PlantSenseplantsense.com | 2008 | Yes | 94 | — |
| EyeSpot | 2006 | No | 90 | — |
| Aurora Biofuelsaurorainc.com | 2007 | Yes | 85 | — |
| Boston Powerboston-power.com | 2006 | Yes | 73 | — |
| IForemiforem.com | 2007 | Yes | 72 | — |
| Tapataptapatap.com | 2007 | No | 69 | — |
| Step Labsstep-labs.com | 2008 | No | 52 | — |
| Encentuateencentuate.com | 2005 | No | 51 | — |
| NextG Networksnextgnetworks.net | 2008 | Yes | 33 | — |
| kajeetkajeet.com | 2007 | Yes | 31 | — |
| Tejas Networks Indiatejasnetworks.com | 2005 | Yes | 30 | — |
| TestQuesttestquest.com | 2005 | No | 19 | — |
| LVL7 Systems | 2002 | Yes | — | — |