Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Garage Technology Ventures vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 72.7% (8 of 11 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 43.4%–90.3%. Vintage-weighted base rate 41.7%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 11.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+31.1 pp
72.7% on 11 deals vs 41.7%
Vs median VC book
+22.2 pp
72.7% on 11 deals vs 50.6%
Vs top-quartile VC
+8.2 pp
72.7% on 11 deals vs 64.5%
Vs Y Combinator
-3.8 pp
66.7% on 9 deals vs 70.4%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
11
Mean model percentile
79
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 18.2% (2 of 11). 95% Wilson interval 5.1%–47.7%.
Vs exit base rate
+3.5 pp
18.2% on 11 deals vs 14.7%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
11 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| cFarescfares.com | 2006 | Yes | 95 | — |
| d.light designdlight.com | 2008 | Yes | 94 | — |
| SignaCertsignacert.com | 2005 | No | 89 | — |
| Qumuqumu.com | 2006 | Yes | 89 | — |
| Kaboodlekaboodle.com | 2005 | Yes | 87 | — |
| FilmLoop | 2005 | Yes | 79 | — |
| MiaSolémiasole.com | 2004 | Yes | 76 | — |
| Razz | 2005 | Yes | 74 | — |
| Packet Islandpacketisland.com | 2006 | No | 67 | — |
| BitPassbitpass.com | 2003 | Yes | 63 | — |
| Step Labsstep-labs.com | 2008 | No | 52 | — |