Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
GBS Ventures vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 44.4% (4 of 9 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 18.9%–73.3%. Vintage-weighted base rate 43.1%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 9.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+1.3 pp
44.4% on 9 deals vs 43.1%
Vs median VC book
-3.9 pp
50.0% on 8 deals vs 53.9%
Vs top-quartile VC
-18.7 pp
50.0% on 8 deals vs 68.7%
Vs Y Combinator
-17.6 pp
50.0% on 8 deals vs 67.6%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 8 of 9 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
8
Mean model percentile
61
Flagged deals
10/1 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 12.5% (1 of 8). 95% Wilson interval 2.2%–47.1%.
Vs exit base rate
-1.4 pp
12.5% on 8 deals vs 13.9%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
9 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OPAL Therapeutics | 2005 | No | 98 | Yes |
| Euthymics Bioscienceeuthymics.com | 2010 | Yes | 87 | — |
| Spinifex Pharmaceuticalsspinifexpharma.com.au | 2011 | Yes | 68 | — |
| Pathway Therapeuticspathwaytx.com | 2008 | Yes | 67 | — |
| CoDa Therapeuticscodatherapeutics.com | 2006 | No | 60 | — |
| Nuon Therapeuticsnuontherapeutics.com | 2007 | Yes | 56 | — |
| Hatchtechhatchtech.com.au | 2005 | No | 44 | — |
| NovaSysnovasyshealth.com | 2008 | No | 9 | — |
| Phenomixphenomixcorp.com | 2002 | No | — | — |