Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
GE Capital vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 44.4% (4 of 9 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 18.9%–73.3%. Vintage-weighted base rate 46.6%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 9.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-2.2 pp
44.4% on 9 deals vs 46.6%
Vs median VC book
-13.3 pp
44.4% on 9 deals vs 57.8%
Vs top-quartile VC
-29.2 pp
44.4% on 9 deals vs 73.6%
Vs Y Combinator
-18.5 pp
44.4% on 9 deals vs 63.0%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
8
Mean model percentile
40
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 0.0% (0 of 6). 95% Wilson interval 0.0%–39.0%.
Vs exit base rate
-12.0 pp
0.0% on 6 deals vs 12.0%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
9 labeled follow-on deals, 2 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Singulexsingulex.com | 2006 | Yes | 88 | — |
| SolarEdgesolaredge.us | 2009 | Yes | 79 | — |
| eBioscienceebioscience.com | 2011 | No | 67 | — |
| Redaptredapt.com | 2012 | No | 40 | — |
| Micell Technologiesmicell.com | 2007 | Yes | 25 | — |
| Loehmann'sloehmanns.com | 2009 | No | 10 | — |
| KSK Power Ventureksk.co.in | 2008 | No | 4 | — |
| SunGardsungard.com | 2009 | No | 4 | — |
| Medical Depotdrivemedical.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| ASI System Integrationasisystem.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| RadioShackradioshack.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |