Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Gemini Israel Ventures vs Kairos
55th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 59.4% (19 of 32 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 42.3%–74.5%. Vintage-weighted base rate 43.1%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 58th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+16.3 pp
59.4% on 32 deals vs 43.1%
Vs median VC book
+4.6 pp
58.1% on 31 deals vs 53.4%
Vs top-quartile VC
-9.8 pp
58.1% on 31 deals vs 67.9%
Vs Y Combinator
-8.9 pp
56.7% on 30 deals vs 65.6%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 31 of 32 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
30
Mean model percentile
68
Flagged deals
43/4 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 31.0% (9 of 29). 95% Wilson interval 17.3%–49.2%.
Vs exit base rate
+16.6 pp
31.0% on 29 deals vs 14.4%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
32 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eyevieweyeviewdigital.com | 2008 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| Panayapanaya.com | 2006 | No | 99 | Yes |
| WatchDoxwatchdox.com | 2008 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| modumodumobile.com | 2007 | Yes | 98 | — |
| Octavianoctavian-tech.com | 2005 | Yes | 97 | Yes |
| Neocleusneocleus.com | 2006 | Yes | 93 | — |
| Ebuzzingebuzzing.com | 2007 | No | 93 | — |
| Moovitmoovitapp.com | 2012 | Yes | 92 | — |
| Verixverix.com | 2006 | No | 91 | — |
| ConteXtreamcontextream.com | 2007 | No | 91 | — |
| RADLIVEradlive.com | 2007 | No | 90 | — |
| Adap.tv, now a part of ONE by AOLonebyaol.com | 2007 | Yes | 84 | — |
| Vestopiavestopia.com | 2007 | No | 84 | — |
| SupportSpacesupportspace.com | 2006 | Yes | 82 | — |
| CloudSharecloudshare.com | 2009 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Axxanaaxxana.com | 2007 | Yes | 79 | — |
| Novaforanovafora.com | 2007 | No | 78 | — |
| Samanagesamanage.com | 2012 | Yes | 78 | — |
| Prolifyprolify.com | 2005 | No | 69 | — |
| PrimeSenseprimesense.com | 2006 | Yes | 62 | — |
| Intercast Networks | 2006 | Yes | 58 | — |
| Wellspherewellsphere.com | 2007 | No | 53 | — |
| Olistaolista.com | 2006 | Yes | 41 | — |
| Outsmartoutsmarttelecom.com | 2005 | No | 28 | — |
| Celletracelletra.com | 2005 | No | 27 | — |
| eSnipsesnips.com | 2005 | Yes | 25 | — |
| Metrolightmetrolight.com | 2007 | Yes | 22 | — |
| Mirage Innovationsmirageinnovations.com | 2005 | No | 14 | — |
| Diligent Technologiesdiligent.com | 2004 | Yes | 10 | — |
| Traianatraiana.com | 2005 | No | 8 | — |
| FTBproftbpro.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Sphera Corporation | 2002 | Yes | — | — |
| Sckipio Technologiessckipio.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |