Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
General Catalyst Partners vs Kairos
100th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 77.3% (68 of 88 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 67.5%–84.8%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.9%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 86th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+32.4 pp
77.3% on 88 deals vs 44.9%
Vs median VC book
+20.7 pp
77.0% on 87 deals vs 56.4%
Vs top-quartile VC
+5.5 pp
77.0% on 87 deals vs 71.5%
Vs Y Combinator
+8.2 pp
76.8% on 82 deals vs 68.7%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 87 of 88 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
87
Mean model percentile
73
Flagged deals
33/3 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 23.7% (14 of 59). 95% Wilson interval 14.7%–36.0%.
Vs exit base rate
+10.3 pp
23.7% on 59 deals vs 13.4%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
88 labeled follow-on deals, 5 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Optarosoptaros.com | 2005 | Yes | 100 | Yes |
| SignalDemandsignaldemand.com | 2005 | Yes | 100 | Yes |
| Jumptapjumptap.com | 2005 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| SynapDxsynapdx.com | 2010 | Yes | 99 | — |
| Sand 9sand9.com | 2008 | Yes | 98 | — |
| FanSnapfansnap.com | 2008 | Yes | 97 | — |
| rPathrpath.com | 2006 | Yes | 96 | — |
| Datalogixdatalogix.com | 2009 | Yes | 96 | — |
| WonderHowTowonderhowto.com | 2008 | No | 96 | — |
| MocoSpacemocospace.com | 2007 | Yes | 95 | — |
| MovingHealth | 2007 | No | 95 | — |
| Stionstion.com | 2007 | No | 95 | — |
| JNJ Mobilejnjmobile.com | 2008 | Yes | 94 | — |
| Article One Partnersarticleonepartners.com | 2009 | Yes | 94 | — |
| RAMP Holdingsramp.com | 2007 | Yes | 94 | — |
| CoachUpcoachup.com | 2012 | Yes | 94 | — |
| Honest Co.honest.com | 2012 | Yes | 93 | — |
| Handyhandy.com | 2012 | Yes | 93 | — |
| BionX™ Medical Technologies, Inc.bionxmed.com | 2009 | Yes | 92 | — |
| Roostgoroost.com | 2007 | Yes | 91 | — |
| DECAdeca.tv | 2007 | Yes | 91 | — |
| Demandwaredemandware.com | 2006 | Yes | 91 | — |
| Yottaayottaa.com | 2010 | Yes | 91 | — |
| Artilleryartillery.io | 2012 | No | 91 | — |
| StyleSaintstylesaint.com | 2012 | Yes | 91 | — |
| Thumbthumb.it | 2011 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Collaborate.comcollaborate.com | 2011 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Avocadoavocadopos.com | 2012 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Brit + Cobrit.co | 2012 | Yes | 89 | — |
| Flokgoflok.com | 2012 | Yes | 89 | — |
| Nodejitsunodejitsu.com | 2011 | Yes | 89 | — |
| Sphere (Spherical, Inc.)thesphere.com | 2012 | Yes | 89 | — |
| Swirl Networksswirl.com | 2012 | Yes | 88 | — |
| Soshsosh.com | 2011 | Yes | 88 | — |
| NatureBoxnaturebox.com | 2012 | Yes | 88 | — |
| Highfivehighfive.com | 2012 | Yes | 87 | — |
| Sunglasssunglass.io | 2012 | No | 87 | — |
| KAYAKkayak.com | 2004 | Yes | 87 | — |
| Goinggoing.com | 2007 | Yes | 86 | — |
| Retail Convergence | 2008 | No | 85 | — |
| Black Duck Softwareblackducksoftware.com | 2004 | Yes | 84 | — |
| Bigcommercebigcommerce.com | 2011 | Yes | 84 | — |
| Brightcovebrightcove.com | 2005 | Yes | 83 | — |
| DataGravitydatagravity.com | 2012 | Yes | 83 | — |
| SumAllsumall.com | 2012 | Yes | 82 | — |
| TearSciencetearscience.com | 2010 | Yes | 82 | — |
| OLXolx.com | 2007 | Yes | 81 | — |
| Plyfeplyfe.me | 2012 | Yes | 81 | — |
| Abineabine.com | 2011 | No | 81 | — |
| Humedicahumedica.com | 2009 | Yes | 80 | — |
| Ostrovokostrovok.ru | 2011 | Yes | 79 | — |
| One Inc.whatis1.com | 2011 | Yes | 77 | — |
| Game Closuregameclosure.com | 2011 | Yes | 77 | — |
| Neverwareneverware.com | 2013 | Yes | 76 | — |
| OnForceonforce.com | 2006 | Yes | 75 | — |
| Qumasqumas.com | 2005 | No | 74 | — |
| BridgePort Networksbridgeport-networks.com | 2004 | Yes | 73 | — |
| Eonseons.com | 2006 | Yes | 72 | — |
| Vitruevitrue.com | 2006 | Yes | 71 | — |
| PhotoShelterphotoshelter.com | 2007 | No | 69 | — |
| Fliteflite.com | 2011 | Yes | 69 | — |
| Advanced Electron Beamsaeb.com | 2007 | Yes | 68 | — |
| N2N Commercen2ncommerce.com | 2008 | No | 66 | — |
| Cash4Goldcash4gold.com | 2008 | Yes | 64 | — |
| GameLogicgamelogic.com | 2006 | Yes | 56 | — |
| Mascomamascoma.com | 2006 | Yes | 56 | — |
| DGP Labsdgplabs.com | 2007 | No | 55 | — |
| Oscarhioscar.com | 2013 | Yes | 51 | — |
| Imprivataimprivata.com | 2006 | Yes | 51 | — |
| Corvia Medicalcorviamedical.com | 2013 | Yes | 50 | — |
| Circlecircle.com | 2013 | Yes | 50 | — |
| QuickPlay Mediaquickplay.com | 2006 | Yes | 47 | — |
| Delivdeliv.co | 2013 | Yes | 46 | — |
| Impress Software Solutions | 2005 | No | 45 | — |
| Trovertrover.com | 2013 | No | 43 | — |
| AI Exchangeaiexchange.com | 2011 | No | 38 | — |
| Evolv Technologiesevolvtechnology.com | 2013 | Yes | 34 | — |
| Grain Managementgraingp.com | 2008 | No | 34 | — |
| Wakonda Technologieswakondatech.com | 2008 | No | 34 | — |
| Hands-On Mobilehandson.com | 2005 | No | 32 | — |
| SmartLink Radio Networks | 2004 | Yes | 31 | — |
| Dattodatto.com | 2013 | Yes | 29 | — |
| Lumenz | 2008 | Yes | 17 | — |
| Spark Mobile | 2012 | Yes | 9 | — |
| ITA Softwareitasoftware.com | 2006 | No | 8 | — |
| Raytheon BBN Technologiesbbn.com | 2004 | No | 2 | — |
| Big Fishbigfishgames.com | 2008 | No | 2 | — |
| Oceans Healthcareohcg.info | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Hammer & Chisel, Inc.phoenixguild.com | 2012 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Tororedhotlabs.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Opsmaticopsmatic.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Laszlo Systemslaszlosystems.com | 2001 | Yes | — | — |
| InstantCabinstantcab.com | 2012 | Unobserved | — | — |