Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Genesis Partners vs Kairos
80th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 73.1% (19 of 26 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 53.9%–86.3%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.0%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 81st percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+29.1 pp
73.1% on 26 deals vs 44.0%
Vs median VC book
+17.9 pp
73.1% on 26 deals vs 55.2%
Vs top-quartile VC
+2.8 pp
73.1% on 26 deals vs 70.3%
Vs Y Combinator
+2.2 pp
70.8% on 24 deals vs 68.6%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
25
Mean model percentile
66
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 16.7% (3 of 18). 95% Wilson interval 5.8%–39.2%.
Vs exit base rate
+3.1 pp
16.7% on 18 deals vs 13.6%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
26 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sisensesisense.com | 2010 | Yes | 99 | — |
| modumodumobile.com | 2007 | Yes | 98 | — |
| Commerce Sciencescommercesciences.com | 2012 | No | 92 | — |
| Any.DOany.do | 2011 | Yes | 91 | — |
| Innovidinnovid.com | 2008 | Yes | 88 | — |
| Worklightworklight.com | 2006 | Yes | 87 | — |
| Valens Semiconductorvalens.com | 2007 | No | 85 | — |
| Cloverleaf Communicationscloverleafcomm.com | 2003 | Yes | 85 | — |
| Kidarokidaro.com | 2005 | Yes | 81 | — |
| SolarEdgesolaredge.us | 2009 | Yes | 79 | — |
| Commex Technologiescommextech.com | 2007 | Yes | 78 | — |
| Riskifiedriskified.com | 2013 | Yes | 76 | — |
| Preen.Mepreen.me | 2012 | No | 75 | — |
| JoyTunesjoytunes.com | 2012 | Yes | 75 | — |
| ActivePathactivepath.com | 2011 | Yes | 71 | — |
| Aternityaternity.com | 2005 | Yes | 68 | — |
| PrimeSenseprimesense.com | 2006 | Yes | 62 | — |
| Negevtech | 2006 | No | 56 | — |
| PostalGuardpostalguard.com | 2010 | No | 55 | — |
| Intucellintucellsystems.com | 2010 | Yes | 37 | — |
| Profitectprofitect.com | 2009 | No | 31 | — |
| Resolute Networksresolutenetworks.com | 2005 | Yes | 30 | — |
| LightSand Communicationslightsand.com | 2003 | Yes | 25 | — |
| Discretixdiscretix.com | 2007 | No | 19 | — |
| Celtroceltro.com | 2006 | Yes | 13 | — |
| Webflakeswebflakes.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Sckipio Technologiessckipio.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |