Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Gestión de Capital Riesgo del PaÃs Vasco vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 14.3% (1 of 7 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 2.6%–51.3%. Vintage-weighted base rate 41.9%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 7.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-27.6 pp
14.3% on 7 deals vs 41.9%
Vs median VC book
-35.9 pp
14.3% on 7 deals vs 50.2%
Vs top-quartile VC
-52.4 pp
14.3% on 7 deals vs 66.7%
Vs Y Combinator
-44.8 pp
14.3% on 7 deals vs 59.0%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
7
Mean model percentile
23
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 0.0% (0 of 7). 95% Wilson interval 0.0%–35.4%.
Vs exit base rate
-14.0 pp
0.0% on 7 deals vs 14.0%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
7 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IKOR METERINGikormetering.com | 2008 | No | 58 | — |
| Estrategias y Procesos para Portales Corporativosestrategix.com | 2007 | No | 27 | — |
| IkerChemikerchem.com | 2007 | No | 21 | — |
| B-kin Softwareb-kin.com | 2006 | Yes | 17 | — |
| INCIDEincide-semi.com | 2008 | No | 16 | — |
| DRO Biosystemsdro.es | 2006 | No | 13 | — |
| Animatu Multimediaanimatu.net | 2006 | No | 8 | — |