Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
GGV Capital vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 72.7% (8 of 11 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 43.4%–90.3%. Vintage-weighted base rate 43.5%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 11.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+29.3 pp
72.7% on 11 deals vs 43.5%
Vs median VC book
+19.4 pp
72.7% on 11 deals vs 53.3%
Vs top-quartile VC
+4.3 pp
72.7% on 11 deals vs 68.5%
Vs Y Combinator
+0.7 pp
70.0% on 10 deals vs 69.3%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
11
Mean model percentile
59
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 60.0% (6 of 10). 95% Wilson interval 31.3%–83.2%.
Vs exit base rate
+46.7 pp
60.0% on 10 deals vs 13.3%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
11 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tudoutudou.com | 2006 | Yes | 89 | — |
| Netli | 2006 | No | 84 | — |
| Canopy Financialcanopyfi.com | 2008 | Yes | 81 | — |
| Reebonzreebonz.com | 2010 | Yes | 79 | — |
| Focusfocus.com | 2008 | No | 76 | — |
| AGEIA Technologies | 2004 | Yes | 70 | — |
| 7k7k.com7k7k.com | 2010 | Yes | 52 | — |
| Social Touchsocial-touch.com | 2012 | Yes | 36 | — |
| UCWebucweb.com | 2010 | Yes | 31 | — |
| Glu Mobileglu.com | 2005 | No | 31 | — |
| Teraneticsteranetics.com | 2006 | Yes | 21 | — |
| Kingsoftkingsoft.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |