Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Gilde Healthcare Partners vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 50.0% (4 of 8 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 21.5%–78.5%. Vintage-weighted base rate 43.1%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 8.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+6.9 pp
50.0% on 8 deals vs 43.1%
Vs median VC book
-4.1 pp
50.0% on 8 deals vs 54.1%
Vs top-quartile VC
-20.1 pp
50.0% on 8 deals vs 70.1%
Vs Y Combinator
-16.9 pp
50.0% on 8 deals vs 66.9%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
8
Mean model percentile
40
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 33.3% (2 of 6). 95% Wilson interval 9.7%–70.0%.
Vs exit base rate
+19.7 pp
33.3% on 6 deals vs 13.7%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
8 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Acacia Pharmaacaciapharma.com | 2011 | Yes | 78 | — |
| Prosonixprosonix.co.uk | 2011 | Yes | 78 | — |
| FlowCardiaflowcardia.com | 2007 | No | 64 | — |
| Santaris Pharmasantaris.com | 2007 | No | 32 | — |
| Agendiaagendia.com | 2007 | Yes | 31 | — |
| Definiensdefiniens.com | 2012 | Yes | 18 | — |
| Chroma Therapeuticschromatherapeutics.com | 2006 | No | 16 | — |
| Stepping Stones Home & Caresteppingstones.nl | 2010 | No | 6 | — |