Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Giza Venture Capital vs Kairos
56th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 65.0% (13 of 20 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 43.3%–81.9%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.7%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 66th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+20.3 pp
65.0% on 20 deals vs 44.7%
Vs median VC book
+9.8 pp
65.0% on 20 deals vs 55.2%
Vs top-quartile VC
-4.7 pp
65.0% on 20 deals vs 69.7%
Vs Y Combinator
+0.3 pp
68.4% on 19 deals vs 68.1%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
19
Mean model percentile
58
Flagged deals
11/1 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 25.0% (4 of 16). 95% Wilson interval 10.2%–49.5%.
Vs exit base rate
+11.5 pp
25.0% on 16 deals vs 13.5%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
20 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Altair Semiconductoraltair-semi.com | 2005 | Yes | 97 | Yes |
| Xeroundxeround.com | 2005 | Yes | 92 | — |
| IMScoutingimscouting.com | 2008 | No | 88 | — |
| Koolanoo Groupkgim.com | 2007 | Yes | 88 | — |
| Visual.lyvisual.ly | 2011 | Yes | 88 | — |
| CallAppcallapp.com | 2012 | Yes | 87 | — |
| XtremIOxtremio.com | 2009 | Yes | 85 | — |
| Mintigomintigo.com | 2011 | Yes | 70 | — |
| Eglue Business Technologieseglue.com | 2006 | Yes | 63 | — |
| SURF Communication Solutionssurfsolutions.com | 2005 | Yes | 59 | — |
| Iamba Networks | 2006 | No | 56 | — |
| WinBuyerwinbuyercorp.com | 2009 | No | 52 | — |
| Triondtriond.com | 2009 | No | 46 | — |
| Advasenseadvasense.com | 2005 | Yes | 38 | — |
| Resolute Networksresolutenetworks.com | 2005 | Yes | 30 | — |
| Odysiiodysii.com | 2008 | No | 22 | — |
| Flash Networksflashnetworks.com | 2003 | No | 19 | — |
| APProtect | 2006 | No | 18 | — |
| Pathway Medical Technologiespathwaymedical.com | 2009 | Yes | 12 | — |
| Appseeappsee.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |