Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Global Catalyst Partners vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 69.2% (9 of 13 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 42.4%–87.3%. Vintage-weighted base rate 42.3%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 13.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+26.9 pp
69.2% on 13 deals vs 42.3%
Vs median VC book
+22.9 pp
75.0% on 12 deals vs 52.1%
Vs top-quartile VC
+8.9 pp
75.0% on 12 deals vs 66.1%
Vs Y Combinator
+5.4 pp
72.7% on 11 deals vs 67.3%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 12 of 13 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
12
Mean model percentile
55
Flagged deals
11/1 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 15.4% (2 of 13). 95% Wilson interval 4.3%–42.2%.
Vs exit base rate
+0.7 pp
15.4% on 13 deals vs 14.7%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
13 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SoundHound Inc.soundhound.com | 2006 | Yes | 98 | Yes |
| iKoaikoa.com | 2007 | Yes | 95 | — |
| Beceem Communicationsbeceem.com | 2005 | Yes | 79 | — |
| Newport Medianewportmediainc.com | 2005 | Yes | 72 | — |
| Aquest Systemsaquestsystems.com | 2007 | No | 70 | — |
| Verientverient.com | 2006 | Yes | 63 | — |
| Miradiamiradia.com | 2004 | Yes | 53 | — |
| Yoombafiercevoip.com | 2007 | No | 53 | — |
| Siimpel Corporationsiimpel.com | 2005 | Yes | 31 | — |
| Teraneticsteranetics.com | 2006 | Yes | 21 | — |
| sliceXslicex.com | 2008 | No | 19 | — |
| Chelsio Communicationschelsio.com | 2005 | Yes | 5 | — |
| Actelis Networksactelis.com | 2001 | No | — | — |