Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Globespan Capital Partners vs Kairos
62nd percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 63.0% (17 of 27 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 44.2%–78.5%. Vintage-weighted base rate 42.8%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 66th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+20.1 pp
63.0% on 27 deals vs 42.8%
Vs median VC book
+10.1 pp
63.0% on 27 deals vs 52.8%
Vs top-quartile VC
-4.5 pp
63.0% on 27 deals vs 67.5%
Vs Y Combinator
-6.0 pp
61.5% on 26 deals vs 67.6%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
27
Mean model percentile
61
Flagged deals
11/1 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 26.9% (7 of 26). 95% Wilson interval 13.7%–46.1%.
Vs exit base rate
+12.8 pp
26.9% on 26 deals vs 14.1%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
27 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Silicor Materialssilicormaterials.com | 2006 | Yes | 98 | Yes |
| SundaySkysundaysky.com | 2009 | Yes | 96 | — |
| Upwork (formerly Elance-oDesk)upwork.com | 2006 | Yes | 96 | — |
| Blackwaveblackwave.tv | 2006 | Yes | 92 | — |
| NextMediumnextmedium.com | 2005 | Yes | 89 | — |
| Solar Power Partnerssolarpowerpartners.com | 2007 | Yes | 89 | — |
| Purswaypursway.com | 2010 | Yes | 85 | — |
| Applied Identityappliedidentity.com | 2005 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Coskatacoskata.com | 2008 | Yes | 82 | — |
| FilmLoop | 2005 | Yes | 79 | — |
| Fortispherevirtualization.info | 2007 | No | 78 | — |
| expressor softwareexpressor-software.com | 2007 | Yes | 76 | — |
| Kaminariokaminario.com | 2011 | Yes | 75 | — |
| Analogix Semiconductoranalogix.com | 2005 | Yes | 73 | — |
| Open Mileopenmile.com | 2011 | Yes | 71 | — |
| Incipientincipient.com | 2003 | Yes | 65 | — |
| Certeoncerteon.com | 2007 | No | 53 | — |
| Avokia | 2006 | No | 47 | — |
| Exerosexeros.com | 2006 | No | 39 | — |
| SDL Enterprise Technologiesidiominc.com | 2005 | No | 33 | — |
| Vettrovettro.com | 2007 | No | 31 | — |
| Nano Network Engines | 2006 | No | 30 | — |
| Revivio | 2005 | No | 27 | — |
| Vericeptvericept.com | 2005 | No | 26 | — |
| SMS GupShupsmsgupshup.com | 2010 | Yes | 18 | — |
| Nurien Softwarenurien.com | 2008 | Yes | 13 | — |
| MarketLivemarketlive.com | 2008 | No | 5 | — |
| Revrev.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |