Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Google Ventures vs Kairos
88th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 74.6% (44 of 59 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 62.2%–83.9%. Vintage-weighted base rate 48.8%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 75th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+25.8 pp
74.6% on 59 deals vs 48.8%
Vs median VC book
+11.5 pp
74.6% on 59 deals vs 63.1%
Vs top-quartile VC
-3.7 pp
74.6% on 59 deals vs 78.2%
Vs Y Combinator
-0.3 pp
74.6% on 59 deals vs 74.9%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
58
Mean model percentile
78
Flagged deals
11/1 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 68.0% (17 of 25). 95% Wilson interval 48.4%–82.8%.
Vs exit base rate
+57.1 pp
68.0% on 25 deals vs 10.9%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
59 labeled follow-on deals, 8 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luminateluminatemed.com | 2009 | Yes | 100 | Yes |
| VigLinkviglink.com | 2009 | Yes | 99 | — |
| EnglishCentralenglishcentral.com | 2009 | Yes | 98 | — |
| Smarterersmarterer.com | 2011 | Yes | 98 | — |
| Recorded Futurerecordedfuture.com | 2009 | Yes | 97 | — |
| LawPivotlawpivot.com | 2010 | Yes | 94 | — |
| TopFloortopfloor.com | 2012 | No | 93 | — |
| Firespotter Labsfirespotter.com | 2011 | Yes | 93 | — |
| MindSumomindsumo.com | 2012 | No | 93 | — |
| Misomiso.kr | 2010 | Yes | 93 | — |
| Nettle | 2011 | No | 92 | — |
| Tracelyticstracelytics.com | 2011 | Yes | 92 | — |
| FitStarfitstar.com | 2012 | Yes | 92 | — |
| Wonder Workshop (Formerly Play-i)makewonder.com | 2013 | Yes | 92 | — |
| Appurifyappurify.com | 2012 | Yes | 91 | — |
| DJZdjz.com | 2012 | Yes | 91 | — |
| Transcriptictranscriptic.com | 2012 | Yes | 91 | — |
| Schematic Labsschematiclabs.com | 2010 | Yes | 91 | — |
| NewHoundnewhound.com | 2012 | Yes | 91 | — |
| Stampedstamped.com | 2011 | Yes | 91 | — |
| Scanscan.me | 2012 | Yes | 90 | — |
| AVOS Systemsavos.com | 2012 | No | 90 | — |
| Collaborate.comcollaborate.com | 2011 | Yes | 90 | — |
| CliQr Technologiescliqr.com | 2012 | Yes | 89 | — |
| MindMeldexpectlabs.com | 2012 | Yes | 88 | — |
| Upstartupstart.com | 2012 | Yes | 88 | — |
| echoechoechoecho.me | 2011 | Yes | 88 | — |
| Miso Mediamisomedia.com | 2010 | Yes | 87 | — |
| Wittlebeewittlebee.com | 2012 | No | 87 | — |
| Backplanethebackplane.com | 2011 | Yes | 86 | — |
| Secretsecret.ly | 2013 | Yes | 86 | — |
| ClearStory Dataclearstorydata.com | 2012 | Yes | 86 | — |
| Cozycozy.co | 2012 | Yes | 85 | — |
| Winguwingu.com | 2011 | Yes | 85 | — |
| MobileDaymobileday.com | 2011 | Yes | 84 | — |
| HomeLighthomelight.com | 2012 | Yes | 83 | — |
| Republic Projectrepublicproject.com | 2012 | No | 83 | — |
| Soldusesold.com | 2012 | No | 82 | — |
| Bionic Panda Gamesbionicpandagames.com | 2012 | Yes | 80 | — |
| Building Roboticsbuildingrobotics.com | 2013 | Yes | 80 | — |
| Pocket Changepocketchange.com | 2011 | Yes | 80 | — |
| Utah Street Labsutahstreetlabs.com | 2012 | No | 79 | — |
| Hipsterhipster.com | 2011 | No | 74 | — |
| Rabbitrabb.it | 2013 | Yes | 74 | — |
| Pocketheypocket.com | 2011 | Yes | 70 | — |
| Doctor on Demanddoctorondemand.com | 2013 | Yes | 66 | — |
| Cordurocorduro.com | 2010 | No | 64 | — |
| Plaidplaid.com | 2013 | Yes | 61 | — |
| FX Alignedfxaligned.com | 2012 | Yes | 60 | — |
| Openbayopenbay.com | 2013 | No | 59 | — |
| TrueLenstruelens.com | 2012 | No | 47 | — |
| Rani Therapeuticsranitherapeutics.com | 2013 | Yes | 42 | — |
| Bustlebustle.com | 2013 | Yes | 41 | — |
| Hiredhired.com | 2013 | Yes | 37 | — |
| Carnivalcarnivalmobile.com | 2013 | No | 34 | — |
| Top100.cntop100.cn | 2010 | No | 33 | — |
| 1Life Healthcare1life.com | 2013 | Yes | 19 | — |
| Subtextsubtext.com | 2011 | No | 17 | — |
| Cluster Labscluster.co | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| KeepTruckinkeeptruckin.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| N3TWORKn3twork.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Heydayhey.co | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Luvocracyluvocracy.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Niftinifti.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Weottaweotta.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Namo Medianamomedia.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| JumpCamjumpcam.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |