Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Granite Ventures vs Kairos
64th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 63.3% (19 of 30 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 45.5%–78.1%. Vintage-weighted base rate 43.0%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 67th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+20.3 pp
63.3% on 30 deals vs 43.0%
Vs median VC book
+8.8 pp
62.1% on 29 deals vs 53.3%
Vs top-quartile VC
-5.9 pp
62.1% on 29 deals vs 68.0%
Vs Y Combinator
-3.8 pp
61.5% on 26 deals vs 65.3%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 29 of 30 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
28
Mean model percentile
72
Flagged deals
21/2 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 26.9% (7 of 26). 95% Wilson interval 13.7%–46.1%.
Vs exit base rate
+13.5 pp
26.9% on 26 deals vs 13.4%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
30 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Symplifiedsymplified.com | 2008 | Yes | 100 | Yes |
| Crowd Sciencecrowdscience.com | 2007 | No | 99 | Yes |
| Zeugma Systemszeugmasystems.com | 2007 | Yes | 98 | — |
| Quantancequantance.com | 2006 | Yes | 97 | — |
| Rewarderrewarder.com | 2012 | No | 93 | — |
| StepUpstepup.com | 2005 | No | 93 | — |
| Indiceeindicee.com | 2009 | No | 92 | — |
| Bunchballbunchball.com | 2006 | Yes | 92 | — |
| Mixamomixamo.com | 2009 | Yes | 91 | — |
| Entertainment Media Worksentmediaworks.com | 2007 | No | 91 | — |
| Lucidworkslucidworks.com | 2009 | Yes | 91 | — |
| Empowered Careersempoweredu.com | 2011 | Yes | 87 | — |
| Agilenceagilenceinc.com | 2008 | Yes | 87 | — |
| Percellopercello.com | 2008 | No | 85 | — |
| Ozmo Devicesozmodevices.com | 2006 | No | 83 | — |
| Skytideskytide.com | 2005 | No | 82 | — |
| YottaMarkyottamark.com | 2008 | Yes | 80 | — |
| Anaplananaplan.com | 2012 | Yes | 75 | — |
| Plato Networksplatonetworks.com | 2007 | Yes | 71 | — |
| Biz360biz360.com | 2003 | No | 60 | — |
| Navini Networks | 2005 | Yes | 49 | — |
| DecisionViewdecisionviewsoftware.com | 2007 | Yes | 46 | — |
| Aspen Avionicsaspenavionics.com | 2012 | Yes | 39 | — |
| Britestream Networks | 2005 | No | 32 | — |
| Fulcrum Microsystemsfulcrummicro.com | 2005 | Yes | 29 | — |
| Above All Software | 2004 | Yes | 29 | — |
| sellpointssellpoints.com | 2008 | No | 26 | — |
| AirTight Networksairtightnetworks.com | 2004 | Yes | 24 | — |
| Fastback Networksfastbacknetworks.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Convioconvio.com | 2001 | Yes | — | — |