Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Grazia Equity vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 44.4% (4 of 9 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 18.9%–73.3%. Vintage-weighted base rate 43.4%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 9.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+1.1 pp
44.4% on 9 deals vs 43.4%
Vs median VC book
-9.3 pp
44.4% on 9 deals vs 53.7%
Vs top-quartile VC
-24.2 pp
44.4% on 9 deals vs 68.7%
Vs Y Combinator
-33.5 pp
37.5% on 8 deals vs 71.0%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
9
Mean model percentile
42
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 16.7% (1 of 6). 95% Wilson interval 3.0%–56.4%.
Vs exit base rate
+3.0 pp
16.7% on 6 deals vs 13.7%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
9 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| mysportgroupmysportworld.de | 2012 | No | 67 | — |
| XConnect Global Networksxconnect.net | 2007 | Yes | 66 | — |
| Starboard Storage Systemsstarboardstorage.com | 2012 | No | 63 | — |
| RELDATA, Inc.reldata.com | 2011 | No | 53 | — |
| B2X Care Solutionsb2x.com | 2012 | Yes | 45 | — |
| immatics biotechnologiesimmatics.net | 2004 | Yes | 31 | — |
| United Mobileunited-mobile.com | 2007 | Yes | 20 | — |
| VoiceTrustvoicetrust.com | 2006 | No | 18 | — |
| Mysportsbrandsmysportbrands.de | 2010 | No | 12 | — |