Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Great Oaks Venture Capital vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 57.1% (8 of 14 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 32.6%–78.6%. Vintage-weighted base rate 50.2%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 14.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+7.0 pp
57.1% on 14 deals vs 50.2%
Vs median VC book
-9.5 pp
57.1% on 14 deals vs 66.6%
Vs top-quartile VC
-24.8 pp
57.1% on 14 deals vs 81.9%
Vs Y Combinator
-18.0 pp
57.1% on 14 deals vs 75.2%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
13
Mean model percentile
81
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Companies
14 labeled follow-on deals, 2 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payoffpayoff.com | 2010 | Yes | 94 | — |
| Adcadeadcade.com | 2012 | Yes | 90 | — |
| The Daily Musethedailymuse.com | 2012 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Source4Stylesource4style.com | 2012 | No | 89 | — |
| Yellowsmithyellowsmith.com | 2012 | No | 86 | — |
| JOORjooraccess.com | 2011 | Yes | 84 | — |
| Artsicleartsicle.com | 2011 | No | 80 | — |
| SkyVu Entertainmentsky.vu | 2012 | No | 80 | — |
| Hatchusehatch.ai | 2013 | No | 79 | — |
| Storefrontthestorefront.com | 2013 | Yes | 78 | — |
| Reclip.Itreclipit.com | 2011 | Yes | 76 | — |
| Locketgetlocket.com | 2013 | Yes | 73 | — |
| Nexttgetnextt.com | 2013 | No | 56 | — |
| MdotLabsmdotlabs.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Downdownapp.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Hullabaluhullabalu.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |