Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Greycroft Partners vs Kairos
59th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 61.8% (21 of 34 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 45.0%–76.1%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.0%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 62nd percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+17.8 pp
61.8% on 34 deals vs 44.0%
Vs median VC book
+5.4 pp
61.8% on 34 deals vs 56.4%
Vs top-quartile VC
-10.5 pp
61.8% on 34 deals vs 72.3%
Vs Y Combinator
-3.0 pp
61.8% on 34 deals vs 64.8%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
33
Mean model percentile
76
Flagged deals
31/3 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 42.3% (11 of 26). 95% Wilson interval 25.5%–61.1%.
Vs exit base rate
+30.0 pp
42.3% on 26 deals vs 12.3%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
34 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MoVoxxmovoxx.com | 2008 | No | 99 | Yes |
| Buzzdbuzzd.com | 2008 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| DigiSynddigisynd.com | 2008 | No | 99 | Yes |
| Maker Studiosmakerstudios.com | 2010 | Yes | 98 | — |
| Crowd Fusionceros.com | 2008 | No | 95 | — |
| Savoteur (formerly Daily Secret)savoteur.com | 2012 | Yes | 93 | — |
| Kodingkoding.com | 2011 | Yes | 91 | — |
| AwesomenessTVawesomenesstvnetwork.com | 2012 | No | 91 | — |
| Panvideapanvidea.com | 2010 | No | 90 | — |
| NiftyThriftyniftythrifty.com | 2012 | No | 90 | — |
| WorkFusionworkfusion.com | 2011 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Pulsepulseapp.co | 2010 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Sometricssometrics.com | 2008 | Yes | 88 | — |
| Fight My Monsterfightmymonster.com | 2012 | No | 88 | — |
| etouchesetouches.com | 2010 | Yes | 87 | — |
| elicitelicitsearch.com | 2011 | Yes | 87 | — |
| Vitalsvitals.com | 2008 | No | 84 | — |
| WorldWide Biggiesworldwidebiggies.com | 2007 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Livefyrelivefyre.com | 2010 | Yes | 80 | — |
| Nominomi.so | 2013 | Yes | 79 | — |
| Nimble TVnimbletv.com | 2011 | Yes | 75 | — |
| Health Plan Onehealthplanone.com | 2008 | No | 75 | — |
| Ladies Who Launchladieswholaunch.com | 2008 | No | 74 | — |
| LicenseStreamlicensestream.com | 2007 | Yes | 66 | — |
| Pump Audiopumpaudio.com | 2007 | No | 63 | — |
| OnePINonepin.com | 2007 | Yes | 62 | — |
| Wochitwochit.com | 2013 | Yes | 60 | — |
| Ixtensmerchantry.com | 2010 | Yes | 55 | — |
| Collectivecollective.com | 2007 | Yes | 54 | — |
| Reloaded Games, Inc.reloadedinc.com | 2007 | No | 41 | — |
| Takkletakkle.com | 2006 | Yes | 34 | — |
| Marketbrightmarketbright.com | 2008 | Yes | 27 | — |
| Doppelgangerdoppelganger.com | 2007 | No | 10 | — |
| Combatant Gentlemencombatgent.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Epoxyepoxy.tv | 2013 | Yes | — | — |