Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Greylock Partners vs Kairos
88th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 67.8% (59 of 87 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 57.4%–76.7%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.3%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 72nd percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+23.5 pp
67.8% on 87 deals vs 44.3%
Vs median VC book
+12.9 pp
68.2% on 85 deals vs 55.3%
Vs top-quartile VC
-1.8 pp
68.2% on 85 deals vs 70.1%
Vs Y Combinator
-2.2 pp
67.9% on 81 deals vs 70.1%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 85 of 87 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
83
Mean model percentile
68
Flagged deals
41/4 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 45.6% (31 of 68). 95% Wilson interval 34.3%–57.3%.
Vs exit base rate
+31.8 pp
45.6% on 68 deals vs 13.8%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
87 labeled follow-on deals, 8 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vikiviki.com | 2010 | Yes | 100 | Yes |
| AtHocathoc.com | 2005 | No | 99 | Yes |
| Calista Technologiescalistatechnologies.com | 2007 | No | 99 | Yes |
| Winkwink.com | 2005 | No | 98 | Yes |
| Delphixdelphix.com | 2009 | Yes | 97 | — |
| Skyhigh Networksskyhighnetworks.com | 2012 | Yes | 97 | — |
| Palo Alto Networkspaloaltonetworks.com | 2006 | Yes | 96 | — |
| Concert Pharmaceuticalsconcertpharma.com | 2006 | Yes | 94 | — |
| Zumperzumper.com | 2012 | Yes | 94 | — |
| Lytrolytro.com | 2008 | Yes | 94 | — |
| Drobodrobo.com | 2005 | Yes | 94 | — |
| Wantfulwantful.com | 2012 | No | 94 | — |
| Cuilcuil.com | 2007 | Yes | 93 | — |
| Instart Logicinstartlogic.com | 2012 | Yes | 92 | — |
| Revision3revision3.com | 2006 | Yes | 92 | — |
| Lasso Medialasso.me | 2012 | No | 91 | — |
| Sumo Logicsumologic.com | 2012 | Yes | 91 | — |
| Clozecloze.com | 2012 | No | 90 | — |
| AppDynamicsappdynamics.com | 2008 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Nextdoornextdoor.com | 2012 | Yes | 89 | — |
| SiTimesitime.com | 2007 | Yes | 89 | — |
| Spindlespindle.com | 2012 | Yes | 89 | — |
| MindMeldexpectlabs.com | 2012 | Yes | 88 | — |
| Tidemarktidemark.com | 2010 | Yes | 87 | — |
| Chirp Interactivechirp.com | 2008 | No | 86 | — |
| Impermiumimpermium.com | 2011 | Yes | 86 | — |
| Oodleoodle.com | 2006 | Yes | 85 | — |
| Famo.usfamo.us | 2011 | Yes | 85 | — |
| Rally.orgrally.org | 2010 | Yes | 84 | — |
| High Gear Mediahighgearmedia.com | 2007 | Yes | 83 | — |
| Glimpsejoinglimpse.com | 2006 | No | 83 | — |
| IFTTTifttt.com | 2012 | Yes | 83 | — |
| Marqetamarqeta.com | 2011 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Citrus Lanecitruslane.com | 2011 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Soldusesold.com | 2012 | No | 82 | — |
| EnStorageenstorageinc.com | 2008 | Yes | 81 | — |
| Massive Healthmassivehealth.com | 2011 | No | 81 | — |
| PiCloudpicloud.com | 2010 | No | 79 | — |
| Tidemark Systems, Inc.tidemark.net | 2010 | Yes | 79 | — |
| Typesafetypesafe.com | 2011 | Yes | 79 | — |
| Panther Expresspantherexpress.net | 2006 | Yes | 78 | — |
| Game Closuregameclosure.com | 2011 | Yes | 77 | — |
| The Boxtheboxsite.com | 2009 | No | 76 | — |
| Aquantiaaquantia.com | 2005 | Yes | 75 | — |
| Refocus Imagingrefocusimaging.com | 2008 | No | 75 | — |
| Medico.commedico.com | 2011 | No | 73 | — |
| Silver Peaksilver-peak.com | 2005 | Yes | 71 | — |
| Origami Labsorigami.com | 2011 | Yes | 70 | — |
| Betablecorp.betable.com | 2012 | Yes | 68 | — |
| AwarenessHubawarenesshub.com | 2007 | Yes | 68 | — |
| ZeroG Wirelesszerogwireless.com | 2007 | Yes | 67 | — |
| Matchboxmatchbox.net | 2011 | Yes | 67 | — |
| Incipientincipient.com | 2003 | Yes | 65 | — |
| Diggdigg.com | 2005 | Yes | 65 | — |
| Music Nationmusicnation.com | 2007 | Yes | 63 | — |
| Panoramic Powerpanpwr.com | 2011 | Yes | 61 | — |
| PortAuthority Technologies | 2005 | Yes | 60 | — |
| Quipquip.com | 2013 | Yes | 58 | — |
| Mazu Networksmazunetworks.com | 2006 | No | 54 | — |
| Lumigent Technologieslumigent.com | 2003 | No | 52 | — |
| Taggle Internet Ventures Privatetaggle.com | 2010 | No | 51 | — |
| Troux Technologiestroux.com | 2005 | Yes | 51 | — |
| Quorum Systemsquorumsystems.com | 2005 | Yes | 46 | — |
| Xsigoxsigo.com | 2009 | Yes | 46 | — |
| Apptioapptio.com | 2007 | Yes | 45 | — |
| Werckerwercker.com | 2013 | Yes | 43 | — |
| T-Networkstnetworksinc.com | 2005 | No | 42 | — |
| Workdayworkday.com | 2005 | No | 39 | — |
| Vuduvudu.com | 2005 | Yes | 38 | — |
| AeroScoutaeroscout.com | 2007 | Yes | 33 | — |
| Car Advisory Networkcaradvisorynetwork.com | 2008 | No | 33 | — |
| SDL Enterprise Technologiesidiominc.com | 2005 | No | 33 | — |
| Ounce Labsouncelabs.com | 2004 | Yes | 32 | — |
| Warp Drive Biowarpdrivebio.com | 2012 | No | 31 | — |
| Cape Clear Software | 2006 | Yes | 30 | — |
| Above All Software | 2004 | Yes | 29 | — |
| OATSystemsoatsystems.com | 2006 | No | 29 | — |
| SEVEN Networksseven.com | 2006 | Yes | 29 | — |
| Websensewebsense.com | 2006 | No | 28 | — |
| SunEdisonsunedison.com | 2008 | Yes | 23 | — |
| CoWarecoware.com | 2007 | No | 14 | — |
| HealthHiwayhealthhiway.com | 2009 | No | 14 | — |
| Metis Technologiesmetistec.com | 2008 | No | 11 | — |
| Yubyub.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| PandoDailypando.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Morta Securitymortasecurity.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Shadow Puppetget-puppet.co | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| First Opinionfirstopinionapp.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Tororedhotlabs.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| CentrePathcentrepath.com | 2001 | No | — | — |
| Snapplisnappli.com | 2012 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Leoleo.co | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Laffsterlaffster.com | 2012 | Unobserved | — | — |
| WildTangentwildtangent.com | 2000 | Yes | — | — |
| Union Bay Networksunionbaynetworks.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |