Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Grotech Ventures vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 91.7% (11 of 12 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 64.6%–98.5%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.2%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 12.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+47.4 pp
91.7% on 12 deals vs 44.2%
Vs median VC book
+36.3 pp
91.7% on 12 deals vs 55.3%
Vs top-quartile VC
+21.6 pp
91.7% on 12 deals vs 70.1%
Vs Y Combinator
+22.8 pp
91.7% on 12 deals vs 68.9%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
12
Mean model percentile
77
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 12.5% (1 of 8). 95% Wilson interval 2.2%–47.1%.
Vs exit base rate
-0.6 pp
12.5% on 8 deals vs 13.1%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
12 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LivingSociallivingsocial.com | 2008 | Yes | 96 | — |
| NexGen Storagenexgenstorage.com | 2010 | Yes | 95 | — |
| Bookerbooker.com | 2011 | Yes | 93 | — |
| Invinceainvincea.com | 2009 | Yes | 92 | — |
| TapInfluencetapinfluence.com | 2012 | Yes | 86 | — |
| Rebitrebit.com | 2008 | Yes | 82 | — |
| SalonBookersalonbooker.com | 2010 | No | 73 | — |
| Giveogiveo.com | 2010 | Yes | 71 | — |
| Hatteras Networkshatterasnetworks.com | 2005 | Yes | 66 | — |
| Aztek Networksazteknetworks.net | 2006 | Yes | 60 | — |
| Omnilink Systemsomnilink.com | 2007 | Yes | 57 | — |
| Ziptronixziptronix.com | 2005 | Yes | 55 | — |