Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Growlab Ventures vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 78.6% (11 of 14 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 52.4%–92.4%. Vintage-weighted base rate 47.3%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 14.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+31.3 pp
78.6% on 14 deals vs 47.3%
Vs median VC book
+19.6 pp
78.6% on 14 deals vs 59.0%
Vs top-quartile VC
+5.8 pp
78.6% on 14 deals vs 72.8%
Vs Y Combinator
-0.8 pp
78.6% on 14 deals vs 79.4%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
13
Mean model percentile
57
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Companies
14 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Battlefybattlefy.com | 2012 | Yes | 87 | — |
| Weeveweeve.it | 2012 | No | 76 | — |
| ePACT Networkepactnetwork.com | 2012 | Yes | 74 | — |
| Skyscraperskyscraper.io | 2012 | Yes | 71 | — |
| Procurifyprocurify.com | 2012 | Yes | 68 | — |
| Wanteringwantering.com | 2012 | Yes | 64 | — |
| Placelingplaceling.com | 2011 | No | 57 | — |
| SpaceListspacelist.ca | 2012 | Yes | 53 | — |
| Shape Collageshapecollage.com | 2011 | No | 45 | — |
| CineCoupcinecoup.com | 2012 | Yes | 44 | — |
| Food.eefood.ee | 2012 | Yes | 43 | — |
| KarmaHirekarmahire.com | 2012 | Yes | 32 | — |
| Sunnytrail Insight Labsthesunnytrail.com | 2011 | Yes | 24 | — |
| BlueBat Gamesbluebatgames.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Skiftskift.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |